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Senators at Islanders
NHL

Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
0
New York Islanders
▸3
FinalTV MSG+, TSN5·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 3-0. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Scott Mayfield's goal at 9:49 of the third period, which took the Islanders' chances from 52% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 2.5 to 1.6; shots on goal were OTT 24, NYI 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 24 of 26 (.923); Semyon Varlamov stopped 24 of 24 (1.000), 1.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Semyon Varlamov (24 saves, 1.000), 2. Anders Lee (1 G, 1 A), 3. Scott Mayfield (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov24 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    NYI
    A. Lee1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    S. Mayfield1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0130506024
NYINYI0807312327

Scoring

3 goals

3rd period

  1. NYI
    S. Mayfield(3)
    B. Nelson (13), A. Lee (9)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +31 pts
    0-1
    9:49
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(24)
    C. Cizikas (5), B. Nelson (14)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +6 pts
    0-2
    17:25
  3. NYI
    Z. Parise(9)EN
    B. Nelson (15), S. Mayfield (15)
    wristxG 0.45
    0-3
    19:14

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 4:34OTTNick Holden · Slashingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 7:55OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Semyon Varlamov2 min
  • 16:00NYINoah Dobson · Holding the stickdrawn by Dylan Gambrell2 min

2nd

  • 10:54NYICasey Cizikas · Cross checkingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalOTT goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Scott Mayfield, 3rd 9:49 — NYI 52% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Parise · Goal · xG 0.45K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.20M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.19Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.17A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.14R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.13J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.10A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.09K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.09B. Nelson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.09K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.08A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.08Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.07O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.06K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.05O. Wahlstrom · On goal · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · Goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.03R. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01
NYI3 G · 2.5 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsNYI
1.60 G
All situations
2 G2.5
1.40 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 64 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT40%60%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.57 – 2.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsNYI
24
Shots on goal
27
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
22
Hits
34
17
Blocked shots
14
20
Giveaways
18
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26E. BrannstromD000-210.01310—22:57
2A. ZubD000-110.02210—20:00
5N. HoldenD000-100.00222—19:49
28C. BrownR000030.2301010019:27
9J. NorrisC000-100.002003519:11
22N. ZaitsevD000030.07400—18:40
18T. StützleC000-120.241104018:24
15M. Del ZottoD000-120.03000—17:55
7B. TkachukL000-120.08102—17:43
98V. MeteD000-100.00020—17:23
10A. FormentonL000020.1511010017:14
36C. WhiteC000-130.25100016:43
21M. JosephR000-110.10110—15:31
71C. TierneyC000-120.150103312:02
17A. GaudetteR000-120.252003311:49
27D. GambrellC000-100.001303311:49
63T. EnnisR000-100.00010—10:55
16A. WatsonL000-100.00120—10:17
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)26242.9232.09+0.0958:11

Season series

NYI leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).