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Maple Leafs at Predators
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Nashville Predators
▸6
FinalTV BSSO, SN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Mattias Ekholm's goal at 10:52 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.8 to 3.1; shots on goal were TOR 41, NSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. Erik Kallgren stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.8 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 38 of 41 (.927). Three stars: 1. Filip Forsberg (1 G, 1 A), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tanner Jeannot (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    F. Forsberg1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    T. Jeannot1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR09113219341
NSHNSH11628310634

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    T. Jeannot(21)
    C. Sissons (20), Y. Trenin (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    13:46

2nd period

  1. NSH
    E. Tolvanen(9)
    J. Davies (1), M. Granlund (37)
    tip-inxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    1:48
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(25)
    M. Bunting (28), A. Matthews (33)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    8:04
  3. NSH
    M. Ekholm(5)
    A. Carrier (21), E. Tolvanen (11)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    10:52

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(46)
    M. Marner (42)
    backhandxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    3:41
  2. NSH
    F. Forsberg(33)PPG
    M. Duchene (31), R. Josi (56)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +9 pts
    2-4
    12:11
  3. NSH
    M. Duchene(32)
    F. Forsberg (25), R. Josi (57)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    14:09
  4. TOR
    M. Marner(26)
    W. Nylander (35), M. Rielly (43)
    deflectedxG 0.26win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    15:19
  5. NSH
    Y. Trenin(15)EN
    C. Sissons (21), R. Josi (58)
    wristxG 0.85
    3-6
    19:08

Penalties

TOR 8 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 14:54NSHMatt Duchene · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 17:28TORJustin Holl · Interferencedrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

2nd

  • 2:47TORJason Spezza · Trippingdrawn by Michael McCarron2 min
  • 12:36NSHRyan Johansen · Interferencedrawn by Morgan Rielly2 min
  • 19:38NSHRyan Johansen · Cross checkingdrawn by Auston Matthews2 min

3rd

  • 5:20TORErik Kallgren · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:25TORKyle Clifford · Interferencedrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTOR goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Mattias Ekholm, 2nd 10:52 — NSH 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Y. Trenin · Goal · xG 0.85T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.77F. Forsberg · Goal · xG 0.28M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.27M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.19R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.17M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.10L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.09M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.07L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.07C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.06Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.05E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.04P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.04E. Tolvanen · Goal · xG 0.04T. Jeannot · Goal · xG 0.04M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.03E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · Missed · xG 0.02M. Tennyson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Goal · xG 0.02T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.01J. Davies · On goal · xG 0.01
NSH6 G · 3.8 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsNSH
3.13 G
All situations
5 G3.8
1.63 G
Even strength
4 G1.4
1.50 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR67%33%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.10 – 2.14

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsNSH
41
Shots on goal
34
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
27
Hits
37
11
Blocked shots
18
16
Giveaways
15
15
Takeaways
20

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44M. RiellyD011-160.12210—26:17
16M. MarnerR213+130.43310—23:45
34A. MatthewsC112+1100.981105023:04
88W. NylanderR011-340.38100—22:29
78T. BrodieD000010.01010—22:03
91J. TavaresC000-330.330005318:52
3J. HollD000-110.04132—18:07
58M. BuntingL011+220.12300—16:26
46I. LyubushkinD000-100.00300—15:56
64D. KampfC000000.000005315:13
38R. SandinD000-100.00500—14:49
65I. MikheyevR000-140.20000—13:25
23T. DermottD000010.04000—13:06
47P. EngvallL000020.172105013:01
15A. KerfootC000-100.001206012:45
19J. SpezzaC000-120.162023811:41
43K. CliffordL000020.11212—09:33
25O. KaseR000-100.00100—06:22
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50E. Kallgren(L)33285.8482.18-2.8256:20

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).