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Jets at Islanders
NHL

Winnipeg Jets at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Winnipeg Jets
2
New York Islanders
▸5
FinalTV MSG+, TSN3·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Winnipeg Jets 5-2. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Bailey's goal at 1:09 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.7 to 3.3; shots on goal were WPG 29, NYI 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 0.6 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 of 29 (.931), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Josh Bailey (2 G), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Semyon Varlamov (27 saves, .931).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    J. Bailey2 G
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    S. Varlamov27 saves, .931

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG1609114229
NYINYI111211216538

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    B. Nelson(23)PPG
    A. Beauvillier (16), N. Dobson (22)
    slapxG 0.18win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    6:38
  2. WPG
    K. Connor(36)
    N. Ehlers (15), N. Pionk (25)
    slapxG 0.24win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    16:58

2nd period

  1. NYI
    J. Bailey(5)
    J. Pageau (13), K. Palmieri (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    1-2
    1:09
  2. NYI
    A. Lee(20)
    B. Nelson (11), A. Beauvillier (17)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    1:49

3rd period

  1. WPG
    B. Wheeler(8)
    P. Stastny (13), D. DeMelo (8)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    0:20
  2. NYI
    J. Bailey(6)
    A. Pelech (16), J. Pageau (14)
    backhandxG 0.28win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    7:14
  3. NYI
    C. Clutterbuck(6)EN
    C. Cizikas (4)
    wristxG 0.37win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    15:16

Penalties

WPG 10 PIM·NYI 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:48WPGKyle Connor · Hookingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

2nd

  • 16:58WPGBlake Wheeler · Holding the stickdrawn by Casey Cizikas2 min

3rd

  • 3:04WPGJosh Morrissey · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min
  • 13:42NYIJosh Bailey · Slashingdrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
  • 13:42WPGBrenden Dillon · Slashingdrawn by Josh Bailey2 min
  • 18:32WPGMark Scheifele · Abuse of officials2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalWPG goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Josh Bailey, 2nd 1:09 — NYI 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.38C. Clutterbuck · Goal · xG 0.37J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.28M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.18B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.18K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.18B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.12A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Parise · Missed · xG 0.12Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.11J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.11C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.10R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.09J. Bailey · Goal · xG 0.09B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.09K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.09K. Bellows · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.08A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.07A. Lee · Goal · xG 0.07A. Greene · Missed · xG 0.07K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.06K. Bellows · On goal · xG 0.06Z. Chara · On goal · xG 0.06A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.06N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.05R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.04N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.03A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Greene · On goal · xG 0.02R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.02N. Dobson · Missed · xG 0.01K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.00C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.00J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI5 G · 3.7 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsNYI
3.32 G
All situations
4 G3.7
2.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.50 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG49%51%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 3.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsNYI
29
Shots on goal
38
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/0
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
2
28
Hits
15
19
Blocked shots
14
13
Giveaways
12
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000030.17102—23:09
2D. DeMeloD011+130.16230—22:42
55M. ScheifeleC000-110.261225821:43
26B. WheelerR101040.48002—19:47
5B. DillonD000-220.04532—19:21
4N. PionkD011-120.05420—18:54
25P. StastnyC011+100.003104018:35
81K. ConnorL101-330.410125018:34
64L. StanleyD000000.00210—18:04
88N. SchmidtD000-100.00030—17:58
9A. CoppC000040.6101010016:03
80P. DuboisC000-210.082002715:16
17A. LowryC000010.073004115:05
27N. EhlersL011-140.56010—14:55
71E. SvechnikovL000-100.00210—13:14
21D. ToninatoC000000.241005007:48
12J. HarkinsC000010.20200005:58
93K. VesalainenL000000.00000—04:56
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)37334.8923.37-0.6359:40

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).