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Flames at Stars
NHL

Calgary Flames at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸4
Dallas Stars
3
FinalTV BSSW, SNW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Dallas Stars 4-3. The Flames came back from two goals down. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Kylington's goal at 18:13 of the third period, which took the Flames' chances from 48% to 93%. Expected goals were close — CGY 2.8, DAL 2.7; shots on goal were CGY 40, DAL 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.8 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Oliver Kylington (1 G), 2. Jason Robertson (1 G), 3. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    O. Kylington1 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Robertson1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY111011318440
DALDAL2611705328

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    T. Lewis(4)
    A. Ruzicka (2), M. Lucic (7)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:54
  2. DAL
    J. Hanley(1)
    R. Damiani (1), T. Kero (3)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    4:26
  3. DAL
    J. Robertson(17)
    E. Lindell (11), M. Heiskanen (23)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    18:12

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn(11)
    T. Seguin (9), D. Gurianov (13)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    11:20

3rd period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(20)
    B. Coleman (7), N. Hanifin (14)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    2-3
    14:36
  2. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(18)
    M. Tkachuk (25), E. Lindholm (21)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +38 pts
    3-3
    15:13
  3. CGY
    O. Kylington(5)
    R. Andersson (20), E. Lindholm (22)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +44 pts
    4-3
    18:13

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

1st

  • 8:14CGYNikita Zadorov · Interferencedrawn by Luke Glendening2 min
  • 13:30DALTyler Seguin · Trippingdrawn by Mikael Backlund2 min
  • 18:40DALLuke Glendening · Hookingdrawn by Dillon Dube2 min

2nd

  • 2:14CGYAdam Ruzicka · Slashingdrawn by Jason Robertson2 min

3rd

  • 16:03CGYOliver Kylington · Holdingdrawn by Luke Glendening2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalCGY goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Oliver Kylington, 3rd 18:13 — CGY 48% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.23J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.20J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.19A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.17T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.15J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.12J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.12R. Damiani · Missed · xG 0.11J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.11J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.11L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.09J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.08J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.07R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.07J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.06T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.06R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.06A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.06J. Robertson · Goal · xG 0.05D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.05J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.04R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.02A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.02J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gurianov · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hanley · Goal · xG 0.01T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kero · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.00J. Klingberg · On goal · xG 0.00R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.7 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsDAL
2.84 G
All situations
3 G2.7
2.54 G
Even strength
3 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY51%49%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 2.66

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsDAL
40
Shots on goal
28
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
24
Hits
20
11
Blocked shots
15
12
Giveaways
21
0
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. TanevD000040.25020—22:08
28E. LindholmC022+130.201105021:05
4R. AnderssonD011+120.21020—21:02
44E. GudbransonD000020.05100—20:27
55N. HanifinD011+120.06020—19:39
58O. KylingtonD101+140.26102—18:36
13J. GaudreauL101+130.60000—18:26
19M. TkachukL011030.17000—17:36
16N. ZadorovD000020.08412—16:39
11M. BacklundC000040.151004316:38
20B. ColemanL011020.15300—16:06
88A. MangiapaneL101030.29100—15:43
22T. LewisC101+120.101003313:23
17M. LucicL011+100.0270010012:18
29D. DubeC000-100.00130011:49
23S. MonahanC000-110.010005411:35
63A. RuzickaC011+120.101022911:34
24B. RitchieR000-110.04200—09:17
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom23203.8702.24-0.7639:59
80D. Vladar(W)5501.0000.44+0.4420:00

Season series

CGY leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).