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Sabres at Predators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
Nashville Predators
1
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Nashville Predators 4-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jeff Skinner's goal at 18:18 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 70%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.4, NSH 2.3; shots on goal were BUF 21, NSH 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Aaron Dell stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.3 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jeff Skinner (2 G), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G), 3. Aaron Dell (29 saves, .967).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Skinner2 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    M. Duchene1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Dell29 saves, .967

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF1111525421
NSHNSH0911308130

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    M. Jankowski(1)
    M. Pysyk (7)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:30

2nd period

  1. NSH
    M. Duchene(17)PPG
    R. Johansen (20), R. Josi (26)
    deflectedxG 0.32win prob +17 pts
    1-1
    13:12
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(12)PPG
    D. Cozens (8), K. Okposo (15)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    18:18

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(13)
    A. Tuch (3)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    7:59
  2. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(8)EN
    R. Hagg (5), K. Okposo (16)
    wristxG 0.48win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    18:46

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 15:44BUFJeff Skinner · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Ekholm2 min

2nd

  • 0:28BUFJeff Skinner · Hookingdrawn by Matt Luff2 min
  • 9:44NSHMatt Benning · Interferencedrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 12:27BUFCody Eakin · Roughingdrawn by Nick Cousins2 min
  • 16:42NSHColton Sissons · High stickingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 19:35BUFAaron Dell · Interferencedrawn by Eeli Tolvanen2 min

3rd

  • 3:47NSHMichael McCarron · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 12:02NSHTanner Jeannot · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Aaron Dell2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalBUF goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Jeff Skinner, 2nd 18:18 — BUF 49% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.32L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.17R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.14R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.12M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.12M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.10E. Tolvanen · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.07M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.07N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.07R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.07A. Carrier · Missed · xG 0.07M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.05P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.04N. Cousins · Missed · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.04M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.03C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.03D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.03P. Tomasino · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01P. Myers · Missed · xG 0.01A. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH1 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNSH
2.43 G
All situations
1 G2.3
0.82 G
Even strength
0 G1.5
0.71 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF34%66%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.49 – 2.29

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNSH
21
Shots on goal
30
44%
Faceoffs
56%
1/4
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
21
Hits
45
11
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
16
10
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000030.10520—25:18
10H. JokiharjuD000010.01100—19:38
89A. TuchR011+120.14210—19:34
33C. MillerD000+100.04310—19:00
24D. CozensC011+110.121005018:21
78J. BrysonD000+200.00000—18:18
53J. SkinnerL202+150.72004—18:14
13M. PysykD011+210.42220—17:09
8R. HaggD011+110.03310—16:28
28Z. GirgensonsC000+100.041003316:19
21K. OkposoR022+130.180005716:00
17M. JankowskiL101+120.070005015:50
71V. OlofssonL000+100.01000—13:51
74R. AsplundC000+100.00000013:21
15J. HaydenC000000.00110012:44
29V. HinostrozaC101+110.49030012:38
20C. EakinC000010.022022911:37
96A. BjorkL000000.00000—08:58
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80A. Dell(W)30291.9672.34+1.3459:57

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).