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Wild at Senators
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
3
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV BSWI+, BSN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Minnesota Wild 4-3. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Thomas Chabot's goal at 14:15 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals were close — MIN 3.1, OTT 3.1; shots on goal were MIN 43, OTT 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Cam Talbot stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 0.9 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 40 of 43 (.930). Three stars: 1. Thomas Chabot (2 G, 1 A), 2. Kevin Fiala (1 G, 1 A), 3. Brady Tkachuk (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    T. Chabot2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    K. Fiala1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN011219113343
OTTOTT21318113434

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    T. Chabot(4)
    A. Zub (11), C. Tierney (9)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:09
  2. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(17)PPG
    T. Chabot (22), C. Brown (19)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    17:05

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Fiala(17)
    D. Kulikov (13), N. Bjugstad (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    6:31
  2. MIN
    J. Spurgeon(5)
    R. Hartman (18), K. Fiala (25)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    12:40
  3. OTT
    T. Stützle(12)
    J. Brown (5), C. Brown (20)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +21 pts
    2-3
    16:22

3rd period

  1. MIN
    J. Merrill(4)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.08win prob +26 pts
    3-3
    4:32
  2. OTT
    T. Chabot(5)
    A. Gaudette (8), E. Brannstrom (5)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +37 pts
    3-4
    14:15

Penalties

MIN 8 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 7:18OTTNikita Zaitsev · Trippingdrawn by Dmitry Kulikov2 min
  • 9:23OTTBrady Tkachuk · Elbowingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 16:01MINFrederick Gaudreau · Holdingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 3:23OTTTim Stützle · Interferencedrawn by Nick Bjugstad2 min
  • 9:23MINDmitry Kulikov · Hookingdrawn by Zachary Sanford2 min

3rd

  • 5:39MINJonas Brodin · Hookingdrawn by Alex Formenton2 min
  • 16:36MINJordan Greenway · Trippingdrawn by Austin Watson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalMIN goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Thomas Chabot, 3rd 14:15 — OTT 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.39T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.18T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.15N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.13T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.12C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.11A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.11A. Gaudette · Missed · xG 0.10A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.10A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.09C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.09A. Formenton · Missed · xG 0.08T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.07T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.05P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.05A. Gaudette · On goal · xG 0.05T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Sanford · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.04C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Sanford · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01N. Holden · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · Missed · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.00P. Kelly · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT4 G · 3.1 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsOTT
3.13 G
All situations
4 G3.1
1.73 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
1.10 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 105 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN51%49%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.08 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsOTT
43
Shots on goal
34
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
30
13
Blocked shots
16
3
Giveaways
10
1
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
46J. SpurgeonD101+130.19020—23:30
25J. BrodinD000-120.04012—22:13
22K. FialaL112+180.79010—22:03
29D. KulikovD011010.07242—20:49
97K. KaprizovL000030.29000—20:15
47A. GoligoskiD000+220.09210—18:35
12M. BoldyL000-150.13000—18:33
14J. Eriksson EkC000010.100006818:31
17M. FolignoL000020.17500—18:22
89F. GaudreauC000-140.311123017:45
38R. HartmanR011020.050102717:05
4J. MerrillD101-130.09010—16:03
59C. AddisonD000-100.00100—13:57
18J. GreenwayL000020.31302—12:57
21B. DuhaimeL000010.02100—10:38
52C. DewarC000+110.0211010008:31
27N. BjugstadC011010.080006707:41
7N. SturmC000020.3410010006:30
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33C. Talbot(L)34304.8823.07-0.9358:58

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).