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Senators at Maple Leafs
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
0
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸6
FinalTV CBC, SN·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Ottawa Senators 6-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ilya Mikheyev's goal at 14:33 of the first period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 65% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.5 to 1.5; shots on goal were OTT 23, TOR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 90% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 34 of 40 (.850), 1.5 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 23 of 23 (1.000), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. TJ Brodie (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jack Campbell (23 saves, 1.000), 3. Ilya Mikheyev (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    T. Brodie1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Campbell23 saves, 1.000
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    I. Mikheyev2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT0409010023
TORTOR211115314640

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    J. Holl(1)SHG
    D. Kampf (6), T. Brodie (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-1
    14:06
  2. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(1)SHG
    A. Kerfoot (13), T. Brodie (8)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    14:33

2nd period

  1. TOR
    T. Brodie(2)
    M. Rielly (23), A. Kerfoot (14)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.05win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    7:18

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(14)
    T. Dermott (2), A. Kerfoot (15)
    wristxG 0.22
    0-4
    13:41
  2. TOR
    I. Mikheyev(2)PPG
    O. Kase (8), J. Spezza (5)
    wristxG 0.16
    0-5
    14:42
  3. TOR
    W. Nylander(15)
    J. Tavares (20), R. Sandin (9)
    slapxG 0.11
    0-6
    17:14

Penalties

OTT 12 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 0:47OTTZachary Sanford · Holdingdrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
  • 4:23OTTAdam Gaudette · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 13:37TORMorgan Rielly · Cross checkingdrawn by Clark Bishop2 min

2nd

  • 0:47OTTNick Holden · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 4:05OTTZachary Sanford · Cross checkingdrawn by Wayne Simmonds2 min
  • 13:56OTTZachary Sanford · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 14:30TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

3rd

  • 13:43OTTDrake Batherson · High stickingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
  • 18:23TORJustin Holl · Roughingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalOTT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Ilya Mikheyev, 1st 14:33 — TOR 65% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.35W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.22M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.17I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.16O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.14A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.14I. Mikheyev · Goal · xG 0.14W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.14M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.14W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.12A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.12J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.12P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.11A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.10J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.09J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.09A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.09M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08J. Holl · Goal · xG 0.08J. Spezza · Missed · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.08O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.08I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.08A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.08I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.07I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.06A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.06O. Kase · Missed · xG 0.06T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.06I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05T. Brodie · Goal · xG 0.05I. Mikheyev · On goal · xG 0.05M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.04W. Simmonds · On goal · xG 0.04O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.03M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Holl · On goal · xG 0.02W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.02T. Brodie · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Spezza · On goal · xG 0.01A. Biega · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kase · On goal · xG 0.01T. Brodie · On goal · xG 0.01A. Biega · On goal · xG 0.01
TOR6 G · 4.5 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTOR
1.50 G
All situations
6 G4.5
1.20 G
Even strength
3 G2.5
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.7
0.30 G
Shorthanded
2 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT10%90%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.45 – 4.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTOR
23
Shots on goal
40
36%
Faceoffs
64%
0/3
Power play
1/6
12
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
14
14
Blocked shots
9
5
Giveaways
6
17
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000-330.09210—23:52
2A. ZubD000-200.00110—22:42
28C. BrownR000-320.130202921:47
98V. MeteD000-110.01120—20:49
19D. BathersonR000-120.21102—19:46
10A. FormentonL000-260.54000—19:09
5N. HoldenD000-100.00112—19:09
7B. TkachukL000-120.112103818:33
18T. StützleC000-410.013101317:56
71C. TierneyC000-110.111005216:15
26E. BrannstromD000-130.12120—15:55
60L. ThomsonD000-100.00120—15:38
16A. WatsonL000010.10100—13:23
27D. GambrellC000000.000001312:15
20L. ShawR000010.013002508:25
14C. BishopC000000.02100008:02
13Z. SanfordL000-200.00116—07:59
17A. GaudetteR000-200.0010210007:26
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(L)40346.8504.47-1.5360:00

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).