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Stars at Avalanche
NHL

Dallas Stars at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
Colorado Avalanche
1
FinalTV BSSW+, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Colorado Avalanche 4-1. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jason Robertson's goal at 4:26 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.4 to 2.6; shots on goal were DAL 20, COL 47. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 85% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 46 of 47 (.979), 3.4 goals saved above expected; Pavel Francouz stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jake Oettinger (46 saves, .979), 2. Joe Pavelski (2 G, 2 A), 3. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    J. Oettinger46 saves, .979
  2. ★★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL172716420
COLCOL014116017147

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(20)PPG
    J. Robertson (25), T. Seguin (10)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    18:24

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Robertson(21)
    J. Pavelski (30), J. Hakanpää (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    4:26
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(10)
    C. Makar (29), A. Newhook (7)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    5:12
  3. DAL
    J. Pavelski(21)PPG
    T. Seguin (11), R. Hintz (20)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +13 pts
    3-1
    12:39

3rd period

  1. DAL
    T. Seguin(16)EN
    J. Benn (11), J. Pavelski (31)
    wristxG 0.58win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    18:37

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:58DALRyan Suter · Slashingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min
  • 17:41COLNazem Kadri · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

2nd

  • 10:18DALJohn Klingberg · Slashingdrawn by Nicolas Aube-Kubel2 min
  • 12:27COLserved by N. Aube-Kubel · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:39COLserved by N. Aube-Kubel · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 13:04DALTyler Seguin · Elbowingdrawn by Darren Helm2 min

3rd

  • 9:38DALJamie Benn · Hookingdrawn by Andre Burakovsky2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDAL goalFinal: COL 0%

Biggest swing: Jason Robertson, 2nd 4:26 — DAL 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.33L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.25C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.22A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.18N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.17G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.16A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.14N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.14N. Aube-Kubel · Missed · xG 0.14M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.13V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.12N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.11V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.11N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.09A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.07M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.07E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.07C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.07A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.05A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.05C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.05N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.04L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03K. MacDermid · Missed · xG 0.03D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.02D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.01
COL1 G · 4.4 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsCOL
2.63 G
All situations
1 G4.4
1.21 G
Even strength
1 G3.4
0.62 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL15%85%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.84 – 4.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsCOL
20
Shots on goal
47
57%
Faceoffs
43%
2/3
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
20
29
Blocked shots
10
1
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
23E. LindellD000000.00120—26:18
4M. HeiskanenD000+110.02430—24:16
3J. KlingbergD000030.08132—23:58
20R. SuterD000+100.00132—22:51
11L. GlendeningC000010.211005020:23
16J. PavelskiC224+250.972308019:33
91T. SeguinC123+220.602124518:44
24R. HintzC011020.340305018:34
18M. RafflL000010.11100—17:45
14J. BennL011000.011225517:04
21J. RobertsonL112+140.20000—14:54
2J. HakanpääD011000.00550—12:41
25J. KivirantaL000010.07100—11:42
55T. HarleyD000000.00100—09:23
47A. RadulovR000000.00210—09:21
34D. GurianovR000-100.00020—09:05
40J. PetersonC000-100.0001010007:56
64T. KeroC000000.00000007:32
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(W)47461.9794.36+3.3660:00

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).