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Oilers at Flames
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Calgary Flames

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
1
Calgary Flames
▸3
FinalTV SNW, SN1·Scotiabank Saddledome

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-1. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tyler Toffoli's goal at 9:54 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 71% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.4 to 1.5; shots on goal were EDM 28, CGY 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.6 goals below expected; Jacob Markstrom stopped 27 of 28 (.964), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Tyler Toffoli (2 G), 2. Jacob Markstrom (27 saves, .964), 3. Johnny Gaudreau (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    T. Toffoli2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom27 saves, .964
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM06011111128
CGYCGY0829112329

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    T. Toffoli(15)PPG
    M. Tkachuk (38), J. Gaudreau (50)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    6:27
  2. CGY
    T. Toffoli(16)
    A. Ruzicka (4), A. Mangiapane (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    9:54

3rd period

  1. EDM
    D. Shore(3)
    D. Ryan (7), D. Nurse (18)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    4:57
  2. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(23)
    E. Lindholm (31)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    17:07

Penalties

EDM 20 PIM·CGY 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:38CGYMikael Backlund · Interferencedrawn by Ryan McLeod2 min
  • 14:35CGYNikita Zadorov · High stickingdrawn by Kailer Yamamoto2 min
  • 18:06EDMTyler Benson · Interferencedrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

2nd

  • 0:00CGYMatthew Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 0:00EDMEvander Kane · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 3:22CGYElias Lindholm · Trippingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 5:45EDMPhilip Broberg · Hookingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

3rd

  • 0:40CGYChris Tanev · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 6:39EDMDarnell Nurse · Slashingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 11:53EDMRyan McLeod · Trippingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min
  • 18:09EDMTyler Benson · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CGY goalEDM goalFinal: CGY 100%

Biggest swing: Tyler Toffoli, 2nd 9:54 — CGY 71% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.17J. Gaudreau · Goal · xG 0.17T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.13M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.12M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.11J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.11A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.10M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10E. Gudbranson · On goal · xG 0.09N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.09A. Mangiapane · On goal · xG 0.08A. Mangiapane · Missed · xG 0.08T. Toffoli · Goal · xG 0.08O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.08D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.07A. Ruzicka · On goal · xG 0.06N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.06O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.05M. Backlund · Missed · xG 0.05D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coleman · On goal · xG 0.04E. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.04T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.04R. Andersson · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.03J. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Dube · On goal · xG 0.02N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.02O. Kylington · On goal · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.02N. Hanifin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Backlund · On goal · xG 0.01O. Kylington · Missed · xG 0.01R. Andersson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.01N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.01
CGY3 G · 2.4 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsCGY
1.51 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.31 G
Even strength
2 G1.1
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM32%68%CGY

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.51 – 2.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsCGY
28
Shots on goal
29
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/4
Power play
1/4
20
Penalty minutes
10
10
Hits
19
7
Blocked shots
15
5
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD011010.03242—24:03
2D. KeithD000000.00110—24:02
29L. DraisaitlC000-110.040006824:00
18Z. HymanL000-120.23000—22:55
86P. BrobergD000030.21002—22:34
97C. McDavidC000-130.201002722:24
91E. KaneL000-140.17202—21:23
5C. CeciD000040.04010—20:46
56K. YamamotoR000000.00000—19:57
71R. McLeodC000000.100022017:45
37W. FoegeleL000000.00000—12:39
84W. LagessonD000-120.03100—10:59
80M. NiemelainenD000-100.00100—10:39
10D. RyanC011+120.080103310:38
14D. ShoreC101020.151002510:29
24B. MaloneC000030.200006708:07
16T. BensonL000000.001012—06:37
70C. SceviourC000010.060003305:20
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(L)29263.8972.43-0.5758:05

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).