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Detroit Red Wings at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
4
Minnesota Wild
▸7
FinalTV BSWI+, BSDET·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Detroit Red Wings 7-4. The Wild came back from two goals down. The Wild led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kirill Kaprizov's goal at 4:54 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.1 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 34, MIN 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 4.3 goals below expected; Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Boldy (3 G, 1 A), 2. Mats Zuccarello (3 A), 3. Kirill Kaprizov (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    M. Boldy3 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    MIN
    M. Zuccarello3 A
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET21105218434
MINMIN2827310725

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    D. Larkin(25)
    M. Seider (28)
    backhandxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:27
  2. DET
    G. Lindstrom(1)
    T. Bertuzzi (20), M. Staal (7)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    4:01
  3. MIN
    M. Boldy(5)
    K. Fiala (23), F. Gaudreau (13)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    5:29
  4. MIN
    M. Boldy(6)PPG
    M. Zuccarello (30), J. Spurgeon (12)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    2-2
    8:04

2nd period

  1. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(21)
    M. Zuccarello (31)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +17 pts
    2-3
    4:54
  2. MIN
    M. Boldy(7)PPG
    J. Spurgeon (13), M. Zuccarello (32)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    2-4
    18:13

3rd period

  1. MIN
    J. Eriksson Ek(14)PPG
    M. Boldy (7), K. Kaprizov (35)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +3 pts
    2-5
    8:00
  2. DET
    L. Raymond(13)PPG
    D. Larkin (26), M. Seider (29)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +3 pts
    3-5
    9:43
  3. DET
    S. Gagner(5)
    R. Fabbri (13), T. Bertuzzi (21)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +6 pts
    4-5
    18:14
  4. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(22)EN
    J. Eriksson Ek (11)
    wristxG 0.56win prob +5 pts
    4-6
    19:11
  5. MIN
    R. Hartman(19)
    F. Gaudreau (14)
    wristxG 0.07
    4-7
    19:45

Penalties

DET 15 PIM·MIN 19 PIM

1st

  • 1:35MINJoel Eriksson Ek · Hookingdrawn by Pius Suter2 min
  • 7:21DETMarc Staal · Cross checkingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 10:45MINJordan Greenway · Interferencedrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min
  • 14:44DETNick Leddy · Hookingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min

2nd

  • 10:27MINBrandon Duhaime · Fightingdrawn by Troy Stecher5 min
  • 10:27DETTroy Stecher · Fightingdrawn by Brandon Duhaime5 min
  • 10:27MINJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Marc Staal2 min
  • 10:27MINBrandon Duhaime · Boardingdrawn by Marc Staal2 min
  • 10:27DETMarc Staal · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 17:21DETLucas Raymond · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Fiala2 min
  • 19:51MINJon Merrill · Slashingdrawn by Lucas Raymond2 min

3rd

  • 6:55DETTroy Stecher · Interferencedrawn by Matt Boldy2 min
  • 9:19MINDmitry Kulikov · Trippingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min
  • 16:00MINKevin Fiala · Roughingdrawn by Robby Fabbri2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalDET goalFinal: MIN 100%

Biggest swing: Kirill Kaprizov, 2nd 4:54 — MIN 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.56R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.52K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.32M. Boldy · Goal · xG 0.16J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.15R. Hartman · Missed · xG 0.15J. Eriksson Ek · Goal · xG 0.12M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.10J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.09M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.09M. Boldy · Goal · xG 0.08M. Boldy · Goal · xG 0.07K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.07R. Hartman · Goal · xG 0.07C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.05M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.04K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.04M. Boldy · On goal · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · Missed · xG 0.04F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.03F. Gaudreau · Missed · xG 0.03R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.02C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.02K. Fiala · Missed · xG 0.02F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Sturm · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brodin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kaprizov · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hartman · On goal · xG 0.01J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.01
MIN7 G · 3.1 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsMIN
2.14 G
All situations
6 G3.1
0.63 G
Even strength
3 G1.1
1.51 G
Power play
3 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET58%42%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 1.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsMIN
34
Shots on goal
25
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/6
Power play
3/4
15
Penalty minutes
19
16
Hits
12
8
Blocked shots
10
2
Giveaways
3
4
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD022+140.20230—27:22
59T. BertuzziL022+130.18200—23:01
71D. LarkinC112040.260004322:17
23L. RaymondL101050.312025021:25
24P. SuterC000-150.270008820:40
2N. LeddyD000-200.01102—20:29
14R. FabbriC011020.36100019:17
28G. LindstromD101-130.04000—16:30
65D. DeKeyserD000000.00130—15:26
18M. StaalD011+100.00004—15:10
89S. GagnerC101+210.200005015:00
73A. ErneL000-110.0320010013:58
11F. ZadinaR000010.02000—13:46
27M. RasmussenC000-220.190103012:40
90J. VelenoC000000.001002512:27
70T. StecherD000-110.02217—11:35
48G. SmithR000-110.01200—09:53
64G. SmithC000-110.010008009:01
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(L)24186.7501.68-4.3255:23

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).