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Lightning at Avalanche
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
FinalTV ALT, BSSUN·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 3-2. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 15:54 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 11% to 26%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.8 to 2.8; shots on goal were TBL 38, COL 47. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 44 of 47 (.936); Darcy Kuemper stopped 36 of 38 (.947), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Devon Toews (1 G, 1 A), 2. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G), 3. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    D. Toews1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL110112016238
COLCOL224112011347

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    G. Landeskog(20)
    M. Rantanen (31), D. Toews (25)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:43
  2. COL
    D. Toews(9)
    N. Kadri (42), E. Johnson (11)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    6:16
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(6)
    B. Point (15), J. Rutta (8)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    10:45

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(13)
    A. Burakovsky (22)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-3
    1:56
  2. TBL
    B. Point(17)
    M. Sergachev (21), O. Palat (17)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    15:54

Penalties

TBL 8 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:17TBLOndrej Palat · Cross checkingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min
  • 6:04COLAlex Newhook · Trippingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 12:43TBLAlex Killorn · Interferencedrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

2nd

  • 0:22TBLJan Rutta · Cross checkingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 0:40COLNazem Kadri · Interferencedrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 6:36COLNazem Kadri · Holdingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

3rd

  • 9:18COLJack Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 9:18TBLAnthony Cirelli · Holdingdrawn by Jack Johnson2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalTBL goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 2nd 15:54 — TBL 11% → 26%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.19A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.17E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.17A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.16D. Toews · Goal · xG 0.15V. Nichushkin · Goal · xG 0.13J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.13V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.10G. Landeskog · Goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.09N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.08C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.07V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.06A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.05J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.05G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.05L. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.04N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.04A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.03A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.03D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.02A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Murray · On goal · xG 0.02T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.01J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Burakovsky · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.00G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.00M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.00
COL3 G · 2.8 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsCOL
3.82 G
All situations
3 G2.8
2.02 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
1.80 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL65%35%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.68 – 2.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsCOL
38
Shots on goal
47
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
18
Hits
23
22
Blocked shots
21
1
Giveaways
2
2
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-110.05250—28:25
98M. SergachevD011+160.37240—24:13
27R. McDonaghD000-210.07020—22:44
86N. KucherovR101080.4601010020:47
21B. PointC112051.031004419:43
71A. CirelliC000060.732025918:48
91S. StamkosC000020.204104218:39
17A. KillornL000050.36002—17:44
44J. RuttaD011010.10202—15:36
18O. PalatL011+210.25012—14:55
10C. PerryR000000.08110—12:27
14P. MaroonL000000.00000—12:13
16T. RaddyshR000-100.00000—12:07
79R. ColtonC000-100.00130012:00
41P. BellemareL000000.000006411:45
52C. FooteD000-100.00120—11:29
7M. JosephR000-120.07100—10:45
43D. RaddyshD000+100.00120—10:43
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(L)47443.9362.76-0.2456:46

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).