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Sabres at Hurricanes
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Carolina Hurricanes
▸6
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·PNC Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Ian Cole's goal at 3:44 of the second period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 70% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.4 to 3.1; shots on goal were BUF 34, CAR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Malcolm Subban stopped 19 of 25 (.760), 3.4 goals below expected; Antti Raanta stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Teuvo Teravainen (2 G), 2. Sebastian Aho (3 A), 3. Antti Raanta (32 saves, .941).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    T. Teravainen2 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho3 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    A. Raanta32 saves, .941

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF19112013234
CARCAR21336110629

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(5)
    S. Aho (13), N. Niederreiter (4)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    2:16
  2. CAR
    M. Necas(5)
    S. Jarvis (5), V. Trocheck (10)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    13:59
  3. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(1)
    J. Skinner (8), V. Olofsson (10)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    19:28

2nd period

  1. CAR
    I. Cole(1)
    V. Trocheck (11)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    3:44
  2. CAR
    V. Trocheck(5)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.31win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    4:08
  3. CAR
    N. Niederreiter(5)
    S. Aho (14)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    11:42
  4. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(5)PPG
    J. Bryson (6), K. Okposo (11)
    deflectedxG 0.23win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    19:34

3rd period

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(6)SHG
    S. Aho (15)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +2 pts
    2-6
    1:09

Penalties

BUF 0 PIM·CAR 17 PIM

2nd

  • 6:47CARIan Cole · Trippingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
  • 17:47CARVincent Trocheck · Boardingdrawn by Tage Thompson5 min
  • 17:47CARVincent Trocheck · Game misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBUF goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Ian Cole, 2nd 3:44 — CAR 70% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Trocheck · Goal · xG 0.31T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.30T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.27N. Niederreiter · Goal · xG 0.25S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.23T. Teravainen · Goal · xG 0.22S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.14M. Necas · Goal · xG 0.14S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.13J. Fast · On goal · xG 0.08T. Teravainen · On goal · xG 0.08J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.06D. Stepan · Missed · xG 0.06J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.06V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.05N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.05D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.05S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · Goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.03B. Skjei · Missed · xG 0.03S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bear · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.01S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01D. Stepan · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR6 G · 3.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCAR
3.42 G
All situations
6 G3.1
3.01 G
Even strength
5 G2.6
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF54%46%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 3.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCAR
34
Shots on goal
29
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/3
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
17
16
Hits
19
11
Blocked shots
11
8
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000-310.02110—22:49
10H. JokiharjuD101-120.03210—19:44
13M. PysykD000-210.04010—19:22
37C. MittelstadtC000-230.190102119:14
78J. BrysonD011-110.02100—18:45
33C. MillerD000-110.02020—18:38
53J. SkinnerL011030.260002517:58
71V. OlofssonL011040.51000—17:42
28Z. GirgensonsC101-130.414005016:23
4W. ButcherD000-110.02010—16:04
72T. ThompsonC000020.261102915:32
21K. OkposoR011-100.1940010015:27
74R. AsplundC000-120.08020015:07
24D. CozensC000-140.590003814:52
20C. EakinC000-310.192005714:07
57B. MurrayL000-130.49000—12:51
96A. BjorkL000-300.04010—12:44
29V. HinostrozaC000-320.06100012:41
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
47M. Subban(L)25196.7602.59-3.4149:57
80A. Dell4401.0000.50+0.5010:03

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).