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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
4
Florida Panthers
▸7
FinalTV MSG-B, BSFL·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-4. The Panthers came back from three goals down. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anton Lundell's goal at 8:05 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 52% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 5.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were BUF 31, FLA 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 72% of the time. Aaron Dell stopped 38 of 43 (.884), 0.9 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 8 of 12 (.667), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Huberdeau (1 G, 4 A), 2. Aaron Ekblad (2 G, 1 A), 3. Sam Reinhart (1 G, 3 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau1 G, 4 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Ekblad2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    S. Reinhart1 G, 3 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF3716018431
FLAFLA013321411745

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(3)
    R. Dahlin (12), C. Eakin (4)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:21
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(7)
    K. Okposo (10)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    7:41
  3. BUF
    V. Hinostroza(4)
    D. Cozens (7)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    14:25

2nd period

  1. FLA
    L. Carlsson(1)
    J. Huberdeau (17), S. Reinhart (9)
    slapxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    3-1
    9:57
  2. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(1)
    R. Asplund (8), H. Jokiharju (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +10 pts
    4-1
    11:16
  3. FLA
    S. Reinhart(6)
    L. Carlsson (2), J. Huberdeau (18)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +9 pts
    4-2
    12:32
  4. FLA
    A. Ekblad(7)
    J. Huberdeau (19), S. Reinhart (10)
    snapxG 0.26win prob +17 pts
    4-3
    15:40

3rd period

  1. FLA
    A. Ekblad(8)PPG
    M. Weegar (13), J. Huberdeau (20)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +22 pts
    4-4
    1:07
  2. FLA
    A. Lundell(4)
    C. Verhaeghe (10), A. Ekblad (15)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +29 pts
    4-5
    8:05
  3. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(8)EN
    S. Reinhart (11)
    wristxG 0.96win prob +7 pts
    4-6
    18:37
  4. FLA
    A. Lundell(5)EN
    C. Verhaeghe (11), M. Weegar (14)
    wristxG 0.49
    4-7
    19:55

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·FLA 8 PIM

1st

  • 1:09BUFHenri Jokiharju · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

2nd

  • 18:13BUFMark Pysyk · Roughingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min
  • 18:54FLAPatric Hornqvist · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 18:54BUFKyle Okposo · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Patric Hornqvist2 min
  • 19:53BUFHenri Jokiharju · Hookingdrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

3rd

  • 3:57FLAJonathan Huberdeau · Trippingdrawn by Mark Pysyk2 min
  • 8:53FLAAaron Ekblad · Holdingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 16:15FLAEetu Luostarinen · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Anton Lundell, 3rd 8:05 — FLA 52% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.96A. Lundell · Goal · xG 0.49A. Ekblad · Goal · xG 0.26S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.22M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.19S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.19C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.17A. Ekblad · Goal · xG 0.17A. Lundell · Goal · xG 0.16A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.14C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.14F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.13B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.13E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.12F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.12J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.11M. Mamin · On goal · xG 0.11O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.11O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.11M. Weegar · Missed · xG 0.10R. Lomberg · Missed · xG 0.10S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.08J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08L. Carlsson · Goal · xG 0.07S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.07F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.06S. Bennett · Missed · xG 0.06S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.06M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.06A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.06M. Mamin · Missed · xG 0.05J. Thornton · On goal · xG 0.05M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.05A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.05E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.05O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.04A. Lundell · Missed · xG 0.04R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.03M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.03M. Kiersted · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.02M. Weegar · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01L. Carlsson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.01A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.01F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA7 G · 5.5 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
2.64 G
All situations
5 G5.5
1.64 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.80 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF28%72%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.56 – 4.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
31
Shots on goal
45
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/3
Power play
1/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
15
Hits
16
20
Blocked shots
15
18
Giveaways
19
2
Takeaways
14

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD011-110.05200—25:14
33C. MillerD000000.00010—19:18
53J. SkinnerL000-340.3210010019:15
13M. PysykD000-220.05222—19:05
37C. MittelstadtC101-330.190205519:02
72T. ThompsonC000-340.490105018:49
71V. OlofssonL000-420.17010—18:36
8R. HaggD000-100.06230—18:15
78J. BrysonD000020.01220—17:13
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.24310016:25
10H. JokiharjuD011+120.18034—16:06
21K. OkposoR011-210.03012—15:03
74R. AsplundC011030.28000014:45
24D. CozensC112+120.202104714:20
29V. HinostrozaC202+230.33010011:40
57B. MurrayL000+100.00000—11:33
20C. EakinC011+100.001005611:07
17M. JankowskiL000+100.0001010010:45
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
80A. Dell(L)43385.8844.08-0.9258:15

Season series

FLA leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).