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Flames at Sabres
NHL

Calgary Flames at Buffalo Sabres

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Calgary Flames
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
0
FinalTV MSG-B, SN360·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-0. The Flames scored first and never trailed. The Flames led 5-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Andrew Mangiapane's goal at 1:42 of the second period, which took the Flames' chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Flames, 2.2 to 1.4; shots on goal were CGY 33, BUF 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flames win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 27 of 27 (1.000), 1.4 goals saved above expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 18 of 23 (.783), 3.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Andrew Mangiapane (2 G), 2. Johnny Gaudreau (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jacob Markstrom (27 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    A. Mangiapane2 G
  2. ★★
    CGY
    J. Gaudreau2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    J. Markstrom27 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY11449010533
BUFBUF0808011027

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(5)
    M. Tkachuk (6), C. Tanev (3)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    10:30

2nd period

  1. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(11)
    C. Tanev (4), O. Kylington (9)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-0
    1:42
  2. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(8)
    J. Gaudreau (13), E. Lindholm (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +9 pts
    3-0
    13:58
  3. CGY
    A. Mangiapane(12)
    M. Backlund (3), N. Zadorov (2)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +4 pts
    4-0
    14:59
  4. CGY
    J. Gaudreau(6)PPG
    S. Monahan (7), M. Tkachuk (7)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +1 pts
    5-0
    15:35

Penalties

CGY 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

2nd

  • 9:37CGYBrad Richardson · Trippingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
  • 11:54BUFDrake Caggiula · Boardingdrawn by Brad Richardson2 min
  • 15:01BUFAnders Bjork · High stickingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 17:24CGYBlake Coleman · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCGY goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Andrew Mangiapane, 2nd 1:42 — CGY 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.14K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.11D. Caggiula · On goal · xG 0.11D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.10R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.08J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.08J. Hayden · On goal · xG 0.07K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.06A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.06A. Bjork · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03J. Hayden · Missed · xG 0.03D. Caggiula · On goal · xG 0.03C. Miller · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pysyk · Missed · xG 0.02M. Pysyk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Asplund · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hinostroza · Missed · xG 0.01A. Ruotsalainen · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.00C. Eakin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF0 G · 1.4 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsBUF
2.25 G
All situations
0 G1.4
2.04 G
Even strength
0 G1.2
0.11 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY66%34%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.14 – 1.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsBUF
33
Shots on goal
27
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
14
Hits
12
15
Blocked shots
16
7
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. TanevD022+200.00020—21:30
4R. AnderssonD000+110.03030—21:02
55N. HanifinD000010.12220—20:50
44E. GudbransonD000+110.01130—19:22
58O. KylingtonD011+210.01120—18:18
16N. ZadorovD011+220.05000—17:34
88A. MangiapaneL202+280.5900010017:25
11M. BacklundC011+210.150002016:51
28E. LindholmC011+200.001007916:50
20B. ColemanL000+220.04212—15:29
13J. GaudreauL213+250.31000—14:44
19M. TkachukL123+240.33100—14:36
22T. LewisC000020.260007514:06
29D. DubeC000010.0220010014:06
17M. LucicL000030.12200—13:53
23S. MonahanC011000.000105013:20
15B. RichardsonR000000.001127113:05
18T. PitlickC000010.09100012:59
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(W)272701.0001.41+1.4160:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).