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Sabres at Sharks
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
3
San Jose Sharks
▸5
FinalTV ESPN+, HULU·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The San Jose Sharks beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-3. The Sharks scored first and never trailed. The Sharks led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drake Caggiula's goal at 13:33 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 12% to 27%. Expected goals favored the Sharks, 2.1 to 1.2; shots on goal were BUF 28, SJS 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sharks win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.9 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Tomas Hertl (2 G, 1 A), 2. Mario Ferraro (1 G, 1 A), 3. Ryan Merkley (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    SJS
    T. Hertl2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    SJS
    M. Ferraro1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    R. Merkley1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF17110111328
SJSSJS2911028527

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    J. Dahlen(4)
    W. Eklund (4), B. Burns (5)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    7:25
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(2)
    V. Hinostroza (3), R. Hagg (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:48
  3. SJS
    R. Merkley(1)
    A. Barabanov (3), T. Hertl (2)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    12:49

2nd period

  1. SJS
    T. Hertl(4)
    R. Balcers (1)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:13
  2. BUF
    D. Caggiula(2)
    V. Hinostroza (4), D. Cozens (3)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    13:33

3rd period

  1. SJS
    M. Ferraro(1)
    N. Merkley (1), J. Weatherby (2)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    6:02
  2. SJS
    T. Hertl(5)
    R. Balcers (2), M. Ferraro (2)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +3 pts
    2-5
    11:46
  3. BUF
    J. Skinner(3)
    T. Thompson (3), R. Asplund (3)
    wristxG 0.03
    3-5
    18:13

Penalties

BUF 4 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

1st

  • 19:00SJSJasper Weatherby · Trippingdrawn by Jacob Bryson2 min
  • 19:36BUFDylan Cozens · Hookingdrawn by Andrew Cogliano2 min

2nd

  • 16:00SJSBrent Burns · Closing hand on puck2 min

3rd

  • 10:15SJSJasper Weatherby · Cross checkingdrawn by Vinnie Hinostroza2 min
  • 10:15BUFVinnie Hinostroza · Roughingdrawn by Jasper Weatherby2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalBUF goalFinal: SJS 100%

Biggest swing: Drake Caggiula, 2nd 13:33 — BUF 12% → 27%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Dahlen · Goal · xG 0.29T. Hertl · Goal · xG 0.21J. Weatherby · On goal · xG 0.14N. Merkley · On goal · xG 0.14T. Hertl · Goal · xG 0.13R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.12L. Couture · Missed · xG 0.11R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.09L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.09N. Merkley · On goal · xG 0.08R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.07L. Pederson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.06R. Balcers · Missed · xG 0.06M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.05B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cogliano · Missed · xG 0.03R. Merkley · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ferraro · Goal · xG 0.03L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barabanov · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.02B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.01R. Merkley · Goal · xG 0.01J. Megna · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.01L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS5 G · 2.1 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsSJS
1.23 G
All situations
5 G2.1
1.23 G
Even strength
5 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 67 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF32%68%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.23 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsSJS
28
Shots on goal
27
35%
Faceoffs
65%
0/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
19
Hits
24
12
Blocked shots
11
5
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000010.04100—25:12
4W. ButcherD000020.03000—24:45
72T. ThompsonC011+110.121003322:07
74R. AsplundC011+130.351202521:35
53J. SkinnerL202+260.23010—20:11
78J. BrysonD000-100.00120—18:26
33C. MillerD000-110.03210—18:22
13M. PysykD000-120.03210—16:58
8R. HaggD011-110.01230—16:17
21K. OkposoR000-110.023002515:54
29V. HinostrozaC022+120.05002015:45
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.05200015:43
24D. CozensC011010.021025014:18
20C. EakinC000-110.021103213:40
91D. CaggiulaL101+130.07000—13:29
96A. BjorkL000-300.00000—09:18
15J. HaydenC000-210.02210008:17
25A. RuotsalainenC000-210.160004008:13
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(L)27225.8152.08-2.9257:30

Season series

SJS leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).