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Flames at Senators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
1
Ottawa Senators
▸3
FinalTV TVAS, SNW·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Calgary Flames 3-1. The Flames scored first; the Senators answered. The Flames led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Chris Tierney's goal at 12:01 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.7 to 1.8; shots on goal were CGY 29, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Jacob Markstrom stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Filip Gustavsson stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Filip Gustavsson (28 saves, .966), 2. Chris Tierney (1 G), 3. Mark Giordano (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    F. Gustavsson28 saves, .966
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Tierney1 G
  3. ★★★
    CGY
    M. Giordano1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY01011108129
OTTOTT01107313331

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. CGY
    M. Giordano(5)
    S. Monahan (14), D. Dube (9)
    deflectedxG 0.05win prob +21 pts
    1-0
    13:37

3rd period

  1. OTT
    J. Norris(8)
    E. Dadonov (3)
    snapxG 0.29win prob +27 pts
    1-1
    4:48
  2. OTT
    C. Tierney(5)
    T. Chabot (17), M. Reilly (14)
    wristxG 0.23win prob +33 pts
    1-2
    12:01
  3. OTT
    N. Zaitsev(1)EN
    A. Zub (6), N. Paul (9)
    wristxG 0.36win prob +9 pts
    1-3
    18:44

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:44OTTColin White · Boardingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min
  • 17:01CGYRasmus Andersson · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

2nd

  • 10:21CGYDillon Dube · Trippingdrawn by Clark Bishop2 min
  • 18:56OTTNikita Zaitsev · Interferencedrawn by Johnny Gaudreau2 min

3rd

  • 17:20CGYNikita Nesterov · High stickingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 18:30OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Derek Ryan2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalCGY goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Chris Tierney, 3rd 12:01 — OTT 52% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Zaitsev · Goal · xG 0.36J. Norris · Goal · xG 0.29C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.23B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.18M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.12M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.12C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.12E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.11T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.10C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.09T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.09M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.06C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.06J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.05A. Formenton · On goal · xG 0.05A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.04D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.03D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · Missed · xG 0.02J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02M. Reilly · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.01C. White · Missed · xG 0.01
OTT3 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsOTT
1.81 G
All situations
2 G2.7
1.31 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY39%61%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.78 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsOTT
29
Shots on goal
31
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
26
Hits
35
9
Blocked shots
20
14
Giveaways
9
4
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD101050.21000—22:46
55N. HanifinD000-210.07000—22:11
4R. AnderssonD000-120.13102—21:35
8C. TanevD000-110.01210—20:51
23S. MonahanC011000.112106017:49
28E. LindholmC000-220.162003517:48
13J. GaudreauL000+130.25000—17:08
11M. BacklundC000-130.152101417:04
17M. LucicL000-110.05410—16:50
89N. NesterovD000020.04422—16:44
93S. BennettC000-110.01100015:48
29D. DubeC011+100.0001210015:08
6J. VälimäkiD000050.06110—14:44
88A. MangiapaneL000-100.15110—14:07
19M. TkachukL000-210.15000—13:45
10D. RyanC000000.001005011:28
36Z. RinaldoC000000.00400009:47
27J. LeivoL000020.23100—09:42
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
25J. Markstrom(L)30282.9332.34+0.3458:39

Season series

OTT leads 6-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).