Stars at Blue Jackets 3-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Dallas Stars

Columbus Blue Jackets

▸4

Final/OTTV FS-O, FS-SW·Nationwide Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Zach Werenski scoring at 4:55. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Blue Jackets led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Werenski's goal at 4:55 of overtime, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.6, CBJ 2.8; shots on goal were DAL 30, CBJ 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blue Jackets win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.2 goals below expected; Elvis Merzlikins stopped 27 of 30 (.900). Three stars: 1. Max Domi (1 G, 1 A), 2. Zach Werenski (1 G, 1 A), 3. Cam Atkinson (1 G).

Three stars

★
M. Domi1 G, 1 A
★★
Z. Werenski1 G, 1 A
★★★
C. Atkinson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
DAL	110	111	18	01	330
CBJ	17	25	010	14	426

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

M. Domi(5)
J. Roslovic (11), E. Bemstrom (2)
wristxG 0.30win prob +13 pts
0-1
9:07
A. Cogliano(3)
R. Faksa (5), J. Oleksiak (3)
snapxG 0.05win prob +14 pts
1-1
16:44

2nd period

A. Sekera(1)
A. Cogliano (4), B. Comeau (5)
slapxG 0.03win prob +18 pts
2-1
7:17
C. Atkinson(11)
M. Domi (6), J. Roslovic (12)
wristxG 0.11win prob +22 pts
2-2
16:45
N. Foligno(5)
Z. Werenski (9)
snapxG 0.03win prob +22 pts
2-3
17:45

3rd period

D. Gurianov(5)
J. Dickinson (4), J. Benn (9)
wristxG 0.18win prob +27 pts
3-3
5:08

Overtime

Z. Werenski(2)
O. Bjorkstrand (13), J. Roslovic (13)
wristxG 0.24win prob +49 pts
3-4
4:55

Penalties

0 PIM·

0 PIM

3rd

9:02Joel Hanley · Ps tripping on breakawaydrawn by Emil Bemstrom0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CBJ

100%

Biggest swing: Zach Werenski, OT 4:55 — CBJ 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 2.8 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 2.6 xG · 45 att CBJ

4 G · 2.8 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.63 G
All situations: 4 G2.8; 2.63 G
Even strength: 4 G2.5; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

49%51%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.55 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 26; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 0/0
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 0; 29
Hits: 27; 12
Blocked shots: 21; 2
Giveaways: 7; 7
Takeaways: 7

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
3J. KlingbergD	0	0	0	-2	3	0.16	4	1	—	25:46
4M. HeiskanenD	0	0	0	0	0	0.01	0	1	—	25:37
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.05	0	0	—	24:02
2J. OleksiakD	0	1	1	0	2	0.17	4	0	—	22:14
18J. DickinsonC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.10	3	1	38	20:12
12R. FaksaC	0	1	1	0	1	0.02	2	1	50	19:24
14J. BennL	0	1	1	+1	3	0.09	1	0	20	18:47
15B. ComeauL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.03	1	1	—	18:37
34D. GurianovR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.30	1	1	—	17:42
21J. RobertsonL	0	0	0	-2	4	0.50	1	0	—	17:20
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.18	2	0	30	17:15
11A. CoglianoC	1	1	2	+1	2	0.15	1	0	100	15:02
44J. HanleyD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	1	—	14:43
5A. SekeraD	1	0	1	+1	2	0.05	0	3	—	12:33
25J. KivirantaL	0	0	0	-1	1	0.20	1	0	50	12:27
17N. CaamanoR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.10	2	1	—	11:12
49R. GardnerC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.43	3	1	67	11:05
38J. L'EsperanceR	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	—	10:47

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29J. Oettinger(O)	26	22	4	.846	2.83	-1.17	64:55

Season series

DAL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Columbus Blue Jackets

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Overtime

3rd

Box score