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Lightning at Red Wings
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
Detroit Red Wings
▸6
FinalTV FS-D, SUN·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-4. The Red Wings scored first and never trailed. The Red Wings led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Luke Glendening's goal at 0:33 of the second period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.0 to 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 44, DET 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 87% of the time. Curtis McElhinney stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 3.5 goals below expected; Jonathan Bernier stopped 40 of 44 (.909). Three stars: 1. Anthony Mantha (1 G, 2 A), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 3. Filip Zadina (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    A. Mantha1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DET
    F. Zadina2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL215013216444
DETDET3621215623

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. DET
    T. Stecher(1)
    S. Gagner (5), F. Zadina (7)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    0-1
    8:31
  2. TBL
    M. Sergachev(2)
    O. Palat (12), A. Cirelli (9)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:55
  3. DET
    D. Larkin(6)
    F. Hronek (13), A. Mantha (5)
    tip-inxG 0.15win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    12:12
  4. TBL
    S. Stamkos(12)PPG
    A. Killorn (10), O. Palat (13)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +10 pts
    2-2
    13:55
  5. DET
    A. Mantha(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    2-3
    14:56

2nd period

  1. DET
    L. Glendening(3)
    M. Rasmussen (4), F. Zadina (8)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    0:33
  2. DET
    R. Fabbri(5)
    J. Merrill (4)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    2-5
    4:50

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(9)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.26win prob +1 pts
    3-5
    15:51
  2. TBL
    O. Palat(11)
    B. Point (15), S. Stamkos (12)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +7 pts
    4-5
    17:05
  3. DET
    V. Namestnikov(5)EN
    A. Mantha (6), F. Hronek (14)
    wristxG 0.91win prob +5 pts
    4-6
    19:40

Penalties

TBL 13 PIM·DET 17 PIM

1st

  • 13:36DETBobby Ryan · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 14:56TBLserved by P. Maroon · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min

2nd

  • 1:31TBLYanni Gourde · High stickingdrawn by Filip Hronek2 min
  • 7:34DETChristian Djoos · Hookingdrawn by Cal Foote2 min
  • 10:57DETRobby Fabbri · Interferencedrawn by Patrick Maroon2 min
  • 12:27DETFilip Hronek · Trippingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 16:07DETAdam Erne · Fightingdrawn by Barclay Goodrow5 min
  • 16:07TBLBarclay Goodrow · Fightingdrawn by Adam Erne5 min
  • 18:08DETDarren Helm · Holdingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 19:05TBLAlex Killorn · Slashingdrawn by Danny DeKeyser2 min

3rd

  • 6:27DETMichael Rasmussen · Trippingdrawn by Blake Coleman2 min
  • 13:03TBLBlake Coleman · High stickingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalTBL goalFinal: DET 100%

Biggest swing: Luke Glendening, 2nd 0:33 — DET 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.91D. Helm · Missed · xG 0.66B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.16A. Mantha · On goal · xG 0.15D. Larkin · Goal · xG 0.15M. Rasmussen · On goal · xG 0.14L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.13A. Mantha · Goal · xG 0.13F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.11R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.11L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.09B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.09T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.05R. Fabbri · Goal · xG 0.04F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · Goal · xG 0.03T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.03L. Glendening · Goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeKeyser · On goal · xG 0.01T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.01D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.01F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.00S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.00F. Hronek · On goal · xG 0.00
DET6 G · 3.1 xG · 26 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsDET
4.04 G
All situations
5 G3.1
2.23 G
Even strength
5 G0.9
1.51 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL87%13%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.01 – 1.49

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsDET
44
Shots on goal
23
61%
Faceoffs
39%
1/6
Power play
0/4
13
Penalty minutes
17
18
Hits
10
7
Blocked shots
21
4
Giveaways
7
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000-230.25010—25:33
98M. SergachevD101+290.44000—22:10
91S. StamkosC112-140.571107221:46
21B. PointC112+140.531004020:40
27R. McDonaghD000-230.06120—20:16
81E. CernakD000030.32210—20:15
18O. PalatL123+240.59100—19:43
17A. KillornL011-320.47202—18:57
71A. CirelliC011+130.303004617:57
37Y. GourdeC000-300.011023816:20
20B. ColemanL000-220.17002—13:21
19B. GoodrowC000-110.081057312:33
9T. JohnsonC000-110.060006011:57
52C. FooteD000-130.13120—11:54
14P. MaroonL000-110.02100—11:08
7M. JosephR000-100.01100—10:54
44J. RuttaD000-300.01000—10:41
79R. ColtonC000010.052007308:51
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35C. McElhinney(L)22175.7731.52-3.4857:42

Season series

TBL leads 5-3

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).