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Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks

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Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Ottawa Senators 5-2. The Ducks scored first and never trailed. The Ducks led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nicolas Deslauriers's goal at 2:45 of the first period, which took the Ducks' chances from 66% to 79%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were OTT 42, ANA 15. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 84% of the time. Marcus Hogberg stopped 10 of 15 (.667), 3.2 goals below expected; Ryan Miller stopped 40 of 42 (.952), 2.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Nicolas Deslauriers (3 G), 2. Ryan Miller (40 saves, .952), 3. Rickard Rakell (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    N. Deslauriers3 G
  2. ★★
    ANA
    R. Miller40 saves, .952
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    R. Rakell1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT014114114242
ANAANA461504515

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. ANA
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +9 pts
    0-1
    2:02
  2. ANA
    wristxG 0.08win prob +13 pts
    0-2
    2:45
  3. ANA
    snapxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    11:17
  4. ANA
    wristxG 0.06win prob +5 pts
    0-4
    11:49

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. White (15), C. Brown (27)
    wristxG 0.38win prob +4 pts
    1-4
    6:06
  2. ANA
    R. Rakell(15)PPG
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    9:52

3rd period

  1. OTT
    wristxG 0.23
    2-5
    13:46

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·ANA 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:34OTTNikita Zaitsev · Hookingdrawn by Max Jones2 min
  • 7:11ANAAdam Henrique · Interferencedrawn by Christian Wolanin2 min
  • 17:51ANAMax Jones · Cross checkingdrawn by Andreas Englund2 min

2nd

  • 4:03ANARickard Rakell · Slashingdrawn by Colin White2 min
  • 9:27OTTMike Reilly · Hookingdrawn by Rickard Rakell2 min

3rd

  • 3:30ANADavid Backes · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 17:41ANADavid Backes · High stickingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ANA goalOTT goalFinal: ANA 100%

Biggest swing: Nicolas Deslauriers, 1st 2:45 — ANA 66% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.16N. Deslauriers · Goal · xG 0.15R. Getzlaf · On goal · xG 0.15D. Heinen · Missed · xG 0.15R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.13J. Silfverberg · Goal · xG 0.10S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.10K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.10A. Henrique · On goal · xG 0.10S. Steel · Missed · xG 0.09N. Deslauriers · Goal · xG 0.08J. Manson · On goal · xG 0.06R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.06N. Deslauriers · Goal · xG 0.06J. Silfverberg · On goal · xG 0.06M. Jones · On goal · xG 0.04K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.04S. Milano · On goal · xG 0.03K. Sherwood · Missed · xG 0.03M. Del Zotto · Missed · xG 0.03C. Djoos · On goal · xG 0.02M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.01D. Heinen · On goal · xG 0.00
ANA5 G · 1.8 xG · 25 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsANA
4.12 G
All situations
5 G1.8
3.02 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
1.10 G
Power play
2 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT84%16%ANA

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.05 – 1.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsANA
42
Shots on goal
15
47%
Faceoffs
53%
0/5
Power play
2/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
33
Hits
19
8
Blocked shots
20
11
Giveaways
10
7
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011+130.44100—27:07
7B. TkachukL112+140.606103319:41
86C. WolaninD000-120.08010—17:48
81R. HainseyD000010.02010—17:47
10A. DuclairL000+120.24000—17:15
36C. WhiteC112+220.321004317:13
13N. PaulL000030.151005716:37
22N. ZaitsevD000000.05212—16:33
5M. ReillyD000-130.11302—16:30
39A. EnglundD000-200.00420—16:11
9B. RyanR000+150.46110—16:09
28C. BrownR011030.381003315:37
89M. BoedkerL000-230.37000—15:30
71C. TierneyC000-130.220005015:21
38R. BalcersL000020.18310—15:15
79J. HawrylukR000050.3750010015:00
49S. SabourinR000-210.13400—13:09
53M. PecaC000-200.001005010:37
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35M. Hogberg(L)15105.6671.79-3.2159:47

Season series

ANA leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).