Oilers at Lightning 1-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Edmonton Oilers

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸3

FinalTV SUN, SNW·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Yanni Gourde's goal at 13:01 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 51% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.3 to 2.4; shots on goal were EDM 30, TBL 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Mike Smith stopped 34 of 36 (.944); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.4 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Yanni Gourde (1 G), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (29 saves, .967), 3. Mike Smith (34 saves, .944).

Three stars

★
Y. Gourde1 G
★★
A. Vasilevskiy29 saves, .967
★★★
M. Smith34 saves, .944

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
EDM	010	17	013	130
TBL	014	213	110	337

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

P. Maroon(7)
C. Gaunce (1), L. Schenn (1)
wristxG 0.15win prob +17 pts
0-1
4:39
C. Jones(3)
R. Nugent-Hopkins (27), L. Draisaitl (58)
wristxG 0.18win prob +18 pts
1-1
9:36
Y. Gourde(8)SHG
Unassisted
wristxG 0.23win prob +20 pts
1-2
13:01

3rd period

C. Paquette(5)EN
B. Point (35), A. Killorn (21)
wristxG 0.91win prob +5 pts
1-3
19:04

Penalties

0 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

1:18Cedric Paquette · Hookingdrawn by Colby Cave2 min
11:44served by A. Volkov · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TBL

100%

Biggest swing: Yanni Gourde, 2nd 13:01 — TBL 51% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 3.3 xG · 44 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.4 xG · 39 att TBL

3 G · 3.3 xG · 44 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.41 G
All situations: 2 G3.3; 2.01 G
Even strength: 1 G2.2; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.0; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

50%50%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.35 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 37; 44%
Faceoffs: 56%; 0/2
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 4; 33
Hits: 41; 10
Blocked shots: 8; 3
Giveaways: 5; 9
Takeaways: 12

Box score

every player line

Edmonton Oilers skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC	0	1	1	-1	3	0.22	0	1	0	24:50
29L. DraisaitlC	0	1	1	-1	1	0.11	1	0	48	24:34
77O. KlefbomD	0	0	0	-3	3	0.14	1	1	—	24:09
25D. NurseD	0	0	0	0	4	0.15	3	1	—	23:48
74E. BearD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.01	1	0	—	22:10
56K. YamamotoR	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	2	0	—	21:48
6A. LarssonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	2	1	—	17:29
44Z. KassianR	0	0	0	-1	5	0.37	3	0	100	16:49
89S. GagnerC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.15	0	0	100	15:43
83M. BenningD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	2	—	14:41
82C. JonesD	1	0	1	0	2	0.22	1	2	—	14:26
39A. ChiassonR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.30	1	0	—	14:13
91G. HaasC	0	0	0	0	2	0.23	2	0	50	13:11
23R. SheahanC	0	0	0	0	1	0.15	1	1	43	12:13
15J. ArchibaldR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	3	0	—	11:55
16J. KhairaL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	5	0	—	10:09
52P. RussellR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.07	2	1	—	09:22
12C. CaveC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.09	2	0	22	09:12

Edmonton Oilers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
41M. Smith(L)	36	34	2	.944	2.40	+0.40	59:00

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Edmonton Oilers at Tampa Bay Lightning

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

Box score