Ducks at Maple Leafs 4-5 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Anaheim Ducks

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸5

Final/OTTV PRIME, SNO·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Anaheim Ducks 5-4 in overtime, John Tavares scoring at 4:53. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 4:53 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 2.9 to 2.2; shots on goal were ANA 30, TOR 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Ryan Miller stopped 30 of 35 (.857), 2.1 goals below expected; Jack Campbell stopped 26 of 30 (.867), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G, 1 A), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 3 A), 3. Adam Henrique (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
J. Tavares2 G, 1 A
★★
A. Matthews1 G, 3 A
★★★
A. Henrique1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
ANA	17	08	315	00	430
TOR	110	217	14	14	535

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

A. Johnsson(8)
M. Marner (41), A. Matthews (26)
wristxG 0.03win prob +12 pts
0-1
4:36
N. Deslauriers(2)
C. Fowler (18), A. Henrique (11)
snapxG 0.07win prob +13 pts
1-1
10:36

2nd period

J. Tavares(21)PPG
A. Matthews (27), Z. Hyman (13)
wristxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
1-2
3:38
A. Matthews(40)
J. Tavares (25), M. Marner (42)
slapxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
1-3
13:18

3rd period

M. Jones(7)SHG
C. Rowney (7)
backhandxG 0.24win prob +13 pts
2-3
8:34
A. Henrique(18)PPG
O. Kase (16), T. Terry (7)
tip-inxG 0.13win prob +28 pts
3-3
12:47
J. Spezza(9)
K. Kapanen (21), J. Muzzin (12)
wristxG 0.04win prob +40 pts
3-4
16:33
D. Grant(13)
C. Fowler (19), R. Getzlaf (25)
wristxG 0.41win prob +44 pts
4-4
19:02

Overtime

J. Tavares(22)PPG
M. Marner (43), A. Matthews (28)
tip-inxG 0.22win prob +49 pts
4-5
4:53

Penalties

12 PIM·

8 PIM

1st

15:36Max Jones · High stickingdrawn by Tyson Barrie2 min
15:54Derek Grant · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
18:36Dmytro Timashov · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Getzlaf2 min

2nd

2:08Josh Manson · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
10:31John Tavares · Hookingdrawn by Adam Henrique2 min
13:39Kyle Clifford · Roughingdrawn by Ryan Getzlaf2 min
13:39Ryan Getzlaf · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Clifford2 min

3rd

6:51Nick Ritchie · Trippingdrawn by Alexander Kerfoot2 min
11:30Kyle Clifford · Holding the stickdrawn by Michael Del Zotto2 min

OT

3:56Rickard Rakell · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, OT 4:53 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

5 G · 2.9 xG · 47 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 2.2 xG · 40 att TOR

5 G · 2.9 xG · 47 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.24 G
All situations: 5 G2.9; 1.22 G
Even strength: 3 G2.3; 0.81 G
Power play: 2 G0.7; 0.21 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

38%62%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 35; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 1/3
Power play: 2/5; 12
Penalty minutes: 8; 33
Hits: 19; 10
Blocked shots: 21; 9
Giveaways: 12; 7
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
47H. LindholmD	0	0	0	0	3	0.02	0	2	0	—	29:27
42J. MansonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.02	4	0	2	—	27:31
4C. FowlerD	0	2	2	+1	4	0.07	0	0	0	—	25:53
15R. GetzlafC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.08	4	1	2	29	22:48
33J. SilfverbergR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.22	0	0	0	—	20:42
61T. TerryR	0	1	1	-1	2	0.18	0	1	0	—	20:17
44M. Del ZottoD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	2	0	—	19:35
67R. RakellR	0	0	0	0	0	0.10	3	0	2	—	19:10
14A. HenriqueC	1	1	2	+1	2	0.19	2	0	0	59	17:23
25O. KaseR	0	1	1	-1	4	0.27	0	0	0	—	16:23
37N. RitchieL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	9	0	2	—	16:04
32J. LarssonD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	3	0	—	14:04
34S. SteelC	0	0	0	-1	2	0.15	0	0	0	67	12:59
49M. JonesL	1	0	1	+1	1	0.25	1	0	2	100	12:13
38D. GrantC	1	0	1	0	2	0.45	2	1	2	44	10:58
24C. RowneyC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	1	0	0	50	09:52
20N. DeslauriersL	1	0	1	-1	2	0.13	2	0	0	—	06:37
6E. GudbransonD	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	0	0	0	—	03:35

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
30R. Miller(O)	35	30	5	.857	2.92	-2.08	64:31

Season series

Tied 1-1

Feb 74@5OTthis game
Mar 61@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

Overtime

1st

2nd

3rd

OT

Box score