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Sabres at Red Wings
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
1
FinalTV ESPN+, FS-D·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-1. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zemgus Girgensons's goal at 12:43 of the first period, which took the Sabres' chances from 72% to 85%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.2, DET 2.1; shots on goal were BUF 27, DET 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 22 of 27 (.815), 2.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evan Rodrigues (2 G), 2. Zach Bogosian (1 G), 3. Curtis Lazar (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    E. Rodrigues2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    Z. Bogosian1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    C. Lazar2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF31203212527
DETDET0611105122

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(1)
    C. Lazar (2), C. Sheary (8)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:39
  2. BUF
    E. Rodrigues(2)PPG
    H. Jokiharju (8), B. Montour (9)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    5:00
  3. BUF
    Z. Girgensons(8)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +13 pts
    3-0
    12:43

2nd period

  1. DET
    M. Bowey(3)
    R. Fabbri (11), D. Larkin (19)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +9 pts
    3-1
    11:56

3rd period

  1. BUF
    Z. Bogosian(1)
    C. Lazar (3), M. Frolik (6)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +7 pts
    4-1
    2:35
  2. BUF
    R. Ristolainen(5)PPG
    J. Eichel (32), R. Dahlin (24)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +1 pts
    5-1
    3:40

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·DET 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:25DETMike Green · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 12:08BUFZach Bogosian · Boardingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 16:56DETMadison Bowey · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 19:54DETValtteri Filppula · Trippingdrawn by Johan Larsson2 min

2nd

  • 2:35BUFBrandon Montour · Cross checkingdrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min
  • 14:05BUFZach Bogosian · Delaying game2 min

3rd

  • 3:16DETMike Green · Trippingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalBUF goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Zemgus Girgensons, 1st 12:43 — BUF 72% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Nielsen · Missed · xG 0.19F. Nielsen · On goal · xG 0.18V. Filppula · On goal · xG 0.18L. Glendening · On goal · xG 0.18D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.13F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.13G. Smith · On goal · xG 0.11R. Fabbri · On goal · xG 0.10L. Glendening · Missed · xG 0.08C. Ehn · On goal · xG 0.08A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.08P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bowey · On goal · xG 0.07D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.06A. Biega · On goal · xG 0.06G. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04M. Green · On goal · xG 0.04J. Abdelkader · On goal · xG 0.04D. Larkin · Missed · xG 0.03C. Ehn · On goal · xG 0.03A. Biega · On goal · xG 0.03A. Biega · Missed · xG 0.02A. Biega · Missed · xG 0.02M. Bowey · Missed · xG 0.01M. Bowey · Goal · xG 0.01B. Lashoff · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lashoff · Missed · xG 0.01A. Biega · On goal · xG 0.00D. Helm · On goal · xG 0.00
DET1 G · 2.1 xG · 30 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsDET
2.25 G
All situations
1 G2.1
1.12 G
Even strength
1 G1.7
1.02 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 61 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF53%47%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.20 – 2.07

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsDET
27
Shots on goal
22
43%
Faceoffs
57%
2/4
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
34
9
Blocked shots
10
9
Giveaways
13
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9J. EichelC011040.411002721:13
23S. ReinhartC000000.0600010020:51
55R. RistolainenD101+120.25210—20:00
26R. DahlinD011020.22210—18:42
62B. MontourD011000.02012—17:54
90M. JohanssonL000010.080007117:27
24L. PilutD000020.02210—17:06
10H. JokiharjuD011+110.01010—15:50
22J. LarssonL000+110.071205315:41
19J. McCabeD000+110.03100—15:30
67M. FrolikR011+120.121103315:22
20S. WilsonC000020.07100015:01
4Z. BogosianD101+110.09104—14:49
21K. OkposoR000-120.1311010014:35
71E. RodriguesC202+140.50100014:31
43C. ShearyL011+100.00000—14:29
28Z. GirgensonsC101+120.172005013:47
27C. LazarC022+100.001002910:31
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)22211.9552.10+1.1059:49

Season series

BUF leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).