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Florida Panthers at Ottawa Senators

FinalTV FS-F, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Ottawa Senators 6-3. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Panthers led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noel Acciari's goal at 10:23 of the second period, which took the Panthers' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals were close — FLA 2.4, OTT 2.3; shots on goal were FLA 31, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.7 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 25 of 30 (.833), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evgenii Dadonov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Tyler Ennis (1 G, 1 A), 3. Keith Yandle (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    E. Dadonov2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    T. Ennis1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    K. Yandle2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA1741519631
OTTOTT21206113331

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    E. Dadonov(15)PPG
    snapxG 0.19win prob +8 pts
    1-0
    1:41
  2. OTT
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    10:59
  3. OTT
    wristxG 0.14win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    15:39

2nd period

  1. FLA
    E. Dadonov(16)PPG
    slapxG 0.12win prob +13 pts
    2-2
    8:54
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.05win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    10:23
  3. FLA
    slapxG 0.08win prob +17 pts
    4-2
    19:08
  4. FLA
    snapxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    5-2
    19:55

3rd period

  1. OTT
    wristxG 0.22win prob +1 pts
    5-3
    17:15
  2. FLA
    wristxG 0.44win prob +1 pts
    6-3
    18:14

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:10OTTMark Borowiecki · Slashingdrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 19:43FLAFrank Vatrano · Trippingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min

2nd

  • 4:33OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Vincent Trocheck2 min
  • 8:23OTTMark Borowiecki · High stickingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 14:42FLAEvgenii Dadonov · Hookingdrawn by Chris Tierney2 min

3rd

  • 6:32FLARiley Stillman · Holdingdrawn by Connor Brown2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalFLA goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Noel Acciari, 2nd 10:23 — FLA 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.23C. Brown · Goal · xG 0.22B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.15J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.15T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.14C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.14T. Ennis · Goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.10R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.09V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.08A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.08C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.08T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.06C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.04E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.04C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.04T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.03T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.02A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01C. Goloubef · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01A. Anisimov · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jaros · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.00S. Sabourin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.3 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsOTT
2.45 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.63 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.42 G
Power play
0 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA43%57%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.95 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsOTT
31
Shots on goal
31
52%
Faceoffs
48%
2/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
21
Hits
35
23
Blocked shots
16
12
Giveaways
15
7
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6A. StralmanD022+240.16100—21:04
61R. StillmanD011+220.05052—19:56
19M. MathesonD000+120.09110—19:54
5A. EkbladD000-230.09020—19:38
55N. AcciariC101-130.291303618:18
16A. BarkovC000+100.001006017:59
2J. BrownD000+100.00240—17:34
10B. ConnollyR000-110.09100—16:44
21V. TrocheckC011000.001104516:42
3K. YandleD022-200.00100—15:24
11J. HuberdeauL112+120.49010—15:23
63E. DadonovL213+120.32112—15:12
7C. SceviourC101+120.10100014:52
68M. HoffmanC011+110.11010014:43
13M. PysykD011010.12010—13:50
77F. VatranoR101040.23602—13:19
14D. ToninatoC011+100.0012010013:15
9B. BoyleC011-140.243105010:13
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)31283.9032.34-0.6660:00

Season series

FLA leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).