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Lightning at Sabres
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
Buffalo Sabres
4
FinalTV SUN, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Buffalo Sabres 6-4. The Lightning came back from three goals down. The Sabres led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex Killorn's goal at 8:08 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 48% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.3 to 3.1; shots on goal were TBL 27, BUF 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 0.9 goals below expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Killorn (2 G, 1 A), 2. Conor Sheary (1 G, 2 A), 3. Tyler Johnson (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    A. Killorn2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Sheary1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    T. Johnson1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL0331539627
BUFBUF1103909428

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    C. Sheary(6)
    C. Lazar (1)
    slapxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:03

2nd period

  1. BUF
    M. Johansson(6)
    C. Sheary (6), M. Scandella (6)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    0-2
    2:12
  2. TBL
    O. Palat(12)PPG
    T. Johnson (9), M. Sergachev (14)
    slapxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    7:00
  3. BUF
    J. Vesey(5)
    M. Johansson (12), C. Sheary (7)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    8:12
  4. BUF
    J. Eichel(25)SHG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    9:56
  5. TBL
    A. Killorn(14)PPG
    B. Point (17), N. Kucherov (28)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +7 pts
    2-4
    13:57
  6. TBL
    T. Johnson(8)
    O. Palat (12), R. McDonagh (10)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +15 pts
    3-4
    16:55

3rd period

  1. TBL
    K. Shattenkirk(6)
    T. Johnson (10), A. Cirelli (17)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +27 pts
    4-4
    6:20
  2. TBL
    A. Killorn(15)
    P. Maroon (8), C. Paquette (7)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +30 pts
    5-4
    8:08
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(9)EN
    A. Killorn (19), S. Stamkos (22)
    wristxG 0.72win prob +6 pts
    6-4
    19:57

Penalties

TBL 15 PIM·BUF 27 PIM

1st

  • 4:03TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 10:29BUFHenri Jokiharju · Slashingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min

2nd

  • 0:08TBLLuke Schenn · Roughingdrawn by Dalton Smith2 min
  • 0:08BUFDalton Smith · Roughingdrawn by Luke Schenn2 min
  • 3:21BUFKyle Okposo · Slashingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 5:08BUFHenri Jokiharju · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 8:34TBLMikhail Sergachev · Fightingdrawn by Jake McCabe5 min
  • 8:34BUFJake McCabe · Instigatordrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 8:34BUFJake McCabe · Fightingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev5 min
  • 8:34BUFJake McCabe · Instigator misconduct10 min
  • 11:06TBLTyler Johnson · Interferencedrawn by Conor Sheary2 min
  • 12:59BUFMarcus Johansson · Hookingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min

3rd

  • 12:07TBLMikhail Sergachev · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:42TBLNikita Kucherov · Cross checkingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalTBL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Alex Killorn, 3rd 8:08 — TBL 48% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.32S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.18J. Eichel · Goal · xG 0.16V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.16S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.16V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.16C. Sheary · Goal · xG 0.15M. Johansson · On goal · xG 0.14Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.12J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.12R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.12V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.10J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.09J. Vesey · Goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.08C. Lazar · Missed · xG 0.08V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.08C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.08J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.05V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.05B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Johansson · Goal · xG 0.02M. Johansson · Missed · xG 0.02Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.00J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.1 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsBUF
4.35 G
All situations
4 G3.1
1.53 G
Even strength
3 G2.0
1.02 G
Power play
0 G0.9
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL40%60%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 3.08

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsBUF
27
Shots on goal
28
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/5
Power play
0/4
15
Penalty minutes
27
19
Hits
20
10
Blocked shots
8
5
Giveaways
8
1
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000+100.00100—25:23
27R. McDonaghD011+100.00010—23:24
91S. StamkosC011-140.920124020:53
17A. KillornL213+240.47120—20:16
86N. KucherovR011030.54102—19:25
21B. PointC011-120.360006718:44
71A. CirelliC112+221.121005518:42
81E. CernakD000030.08410—18:25
22K. ShattenkirkD101-110.12000—17:24
98M. SergachevD011010.04237—16:59
37Y. GourdeC000-100.00100013:34
18O. PalatL112+130.29110—13:32
13C. PaquetteC011+110.042003012:40
9T. JohnsonC123010.140028012:17
2L. SchennD000-100.00202—11:51
14P. MaroonL011-110.13200—11:09
67M. StephensC000-110.061002907:42
23C. VerhaegheC000-100.00010007:40
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)28244.8573.13-0.8760:00

Season series

TBL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).