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Predators at Senators
NHL

Nashville Predators at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Ottawa Senators
▸5
Final/OTTV ESPN+, FS-TN·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Nashville Predators 5-4 in overtime, Anthony Duclair scoring at 2:40. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Duclair's goal at 2:40 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.7, OTT 2.4; shots on goal were NSH 37, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 19 of 24 (.792), 2.6 goals below expected; Marcus Hogberg stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Anthony Duclair (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (2 A), 3. Marcus Hogberg (33 saves, .892).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Duclair1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Hogberg33 saves, .892

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
NSHNSH1170331700437
OTTOTT0103101311524

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(5)
    K. Turris (10)
    backhandxG 0.24win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    11:16

2nd period

  1. OTT
    C. White(3)
    C. Tierney (16), M. Borowiecki (9)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    3:02
  2. OTT
    V. Namestnikov(8)SHG
    J. Pageau (9)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    3:52
  3. OTT
    A. Anisimov(6)
    T. Ennis (10), R. Hainsey (7)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    1-3
    18:41

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(12)PPG
    J. Pageau (10), A. Duclair (8)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +5 pts
    1-4
    1:20
  2. NSH
    R. Grimaldi(6)
    M. Duchene (14), R. Ellis (21)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    1:35
  3. NSH
    R. Johansen(8)PPG
    R. Ellis (22), M. Duchene (15)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +10 pts
    3-4
    9:39
  4. NSH
    R. Josi(11)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.05win prob +35 pts
    4-4
    13:07

Overtime

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(20)PPG
    T. Chabot (19), B. Tkachuk (9)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +49 pts
    4-5
    2:40

Penalties

NSH 8 PIM·OTT 4 PIM

2nd

  • 1:51NSHColton Sissons · Holdingdrawn by Artem Anisimov2 min
  • 2:12OTTThomas Chabot · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 10:59NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Ennis2 min

3rd

  • 0:25NSHColin Blackwell · Slashingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 9:12OTTMark Borowiecki · Trippingdrawn by Kyle Turris2 min

OT

  • 2:16NSHCalle Jarnkrok · Holdingdrawn by Erik Brannstrom2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNSH goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Duclair, OT 2:40 — OTT 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Anisimov · Missed · xG 0.23C. White · Goal · xG 0.20C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.16A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.14A. Anisimov · Goal · xG 0.14N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.13J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.11C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.09C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.09C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.07C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.07V. Namestnikov · Goal · xG 0.06N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.04C. White · Missed · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.03C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03T. Ennis · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · Missed · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02J. Beaudin · On goal · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02A. Anisimov · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · On goal · xG 0.01J. Beaudin · Missed · xG 0.01A. Englund · On goal · xG 0.01R. Hainsey · Missed · xG 0.01V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.00T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 2.4 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsOTT
2.74 G
All situations
5 G2.4
2.53 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.11 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH53%47%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 2.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsOTT
37
Shots on goal
24
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/2
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
26
23
Blocked shots
21
13
Giveaways
12
10
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4R. EllisD022+120.13150—27:35
59R. JosiD101+160.19132—27:18
14M. EkholmD000-230.04120—24:02
57D. FabbroD000-210.05110—21:21
10C. SissonsC000-220.041326716:13
8K. TurrisC011+130.171004416:06
13N. BoninoC000-110.100002716:01
15C. SmithC101+170.74000015:46
19C. JarnkrokC000-100.10012015:46
95M. DucheneC022010.070106715:35
92R. JohansenC101010.080107115:23
9F. ForsbergL000+120.10010—14:49
42C. BlackwellC000+210.13302014:14
23R. GrimaldiR101+120.22110—13:36
32Y. TreninC000020.23500013:24
5D. HamhuisD000+100.00030—12:42
51A. WatsonL000-110.22200—12:37
52M. IrwinD000+120.05110—10:37
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(O)24195.7922.44-2.5662:40

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).