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Buffalo Sabres at New York Islanders

Final/OTTV MSG+, MSG-B·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 3-2 in overtime, Anthony Beauvillier scoring at 3:04. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Beauvillier's goal at 3:04 of overtime, which took the Islanders' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were BUF 35, NYI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 1.2 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 33 of 35 (.943). Three stars: 1. Anthony Beauvillier (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jordan Eberle (1 G), 3. Jack Eichel (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Beauvillier1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    J. Eberle1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Eichel1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF01011011302235
NYINYI19071812326

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin (17), J. Eichel (25)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    6:11

3rd period

  1. NYI
    snapxG 0.21win prob +26 pts
    1-2
    4:50
  2. BUF
    J. Eichel(23)PPG
    wristxG 0.28win prob +40 pts
    2-2
    18:14

Overtime

  1. NYI
    wristxG 0.18win prob +49 pts
    2-3
    3:04

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·NYI 8 PIM

1st

  • 18:22BUFMarco Scandella · Roughingdrawn by Josh Bailey2 min
  • 18:22NYIJosh Bailey · Roughingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min
  • 18:22NYIJosh Bailey · Roughingdrawn by Marco Scandella2 min

2nd

  • 4:37NYIBrock Nelson · Holding the stickdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 8:04BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Holdingdrawn by Jordan Eberle2 min
  • 10:53BUFEvan Rodrigues · Hookingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min
  • 14:17BUFMarcus Johansson · Interferencedrawn by Mathew Barzal2 min

3rd

  • 16:27NYIMathew Barzal · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalBUF goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Beauvillier, OT 3:04 — NYI 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eberle · Goal · xG 0.21A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.18B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.14A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.14J. Eberle · Missed · xG 0.11D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.10M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.09C. Clutterbuck · On goal · xG 0.08A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.06J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.06D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.06C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.06M. Dal Colle · Goal · xG 0.06D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.05D. Brassard · Missed · xG 0.05M. Barzal · On goal · xG 0.05A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.04D. Toews · Missed · xG 0.04S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.02J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Eberle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.02J. Boychuk · Missed · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boychuk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bailey · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI3 G · 1.8 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNYI
2.22 G
All situations
3 G1.8
1.10 G
Even strength
3 G1.5
1.12 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF57%43%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.16 – 1.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNYI
35
Shots on goal
26
27%
Faceoffs
73%
2/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
29
7
Blocked shots
19
7
Giveaways
17
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
68V. OlofssonL101040.26120—24:25
26R. DahlinD011-160.39600—24:02
9J. EichelC112-170.500003123:58
23S. ReinhartC000-130.460005022:43
55R. RistolainenD011-100.01102—21:07
19J. McCabeD000010.04110—20:02
90M. JohanssonL011010.142023019:38
10H. JokiharjuD000-110.02120—18:43
62B. MontourD000-110.01010—18:20
6M. ScandellaD000-110.02102—16:18
22J. LarssonL000-110.020001414:41
13J. VeseyL000-110.14000—14:11
28Z. GirgensonsC000020.02200013:34
74R. AsplundC000020.061002512:10
21K. OkposoR000010.021005011:46
53J. SkinnerL000-200.00010—11:29
43C. ShearyL000-120.07000—09:14
71E. RodriguesC000-110.00002007:05
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(O)26233.8851.82-1.1862:50

Season series

NYI leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).