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Sabres at Oilers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Edmonton Oilers
2
Final/OTTV ESPN+, MSG-B·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Edmonton Oilers 3-2 in overtime, Colin Miller scoring at 1:13. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin Miller's goal at 1:13 of overtime, which took the Sabres' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.7, EDM 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 22, EDM 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 26 of 28 (.929), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Mike Smith stopped 19 of 22 (.864). Three stars: 1. Darnell Nurse (2 A), 2. Linus Ullmark (26 saves, .929), 3. Joakim Nygard (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    D. Nurse2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    L. Ullmark26 saves, .929
  3. ★★★
    EDM
    J. Nygard1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
BUFBUF211040611322
EDMEDM0102120600228

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(3)
    M. Scandella (5)
    tip-inxG 0.19win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:08
  2. BUF
    J. Larsson(3)
    J. Vesey (5), R. Asplund (2)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    10:43

2nd period

  1. EDM
    R. Sheahan(1)
    J. Nygard (2), D. Nurse (12)
    backhandxG 0.17win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    8:25
  2. EDM
    J. Nygard(2)PPG
    D. Nurse (13), G. Haas (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    2-2
    15:56

Overtime

  1. BUF
    C. Miller(1)
    M. Johansson (8), J. Eichel (24)
    slapxG 0.21win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    1:13

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:22BUFBrandon Montour · Trippingdrawn by James Neal2 min
  • 7:42EDMMarkus Granlund · High stickingdrawn by Zach Bogosian2 min
  • 15:26EDMConnor McDavid · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

2nd

  • 5:40BUFZach Bogosian · Holding the stickdrawn by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins2 min
  • 13:57BUFZach Bogosian · Hookingdrawn by Jujhar Khaira2 min
  • 17:31EDMJoel Persson · Hookingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalBUF goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Colin Miller, OT 1:13 — BUF 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.22J. Khaira · On goal · xG 0.21J. Archibald · On goal · xG 0.21R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.20C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.19C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.18R. Sheahan · Goal · xG 0.17C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.15L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.12A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.10L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.10R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.09J. Nygard · Goal · xG 0.09L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.08C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.07J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.05D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.05J. Persson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.02J. Neal · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02J. Neal · Missed · xG 0.01A. Chiasson · Missed · xG 0.01E. Bear · Missed · xG 0.01K. Russell · On goal · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.00R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.00J. Persson · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM2 G · 2.7 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsEDM
2.73 G
All situations
2 G2.7
2.43 G
Even strength
1 G1.6
0.20 G
Power play
1 G0.7
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF50%50%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 2.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsEDM
22
Shots on goal
28
37%
Faceoffs
63%
0/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
13
9
Blocked shots
15
14
Giveaways
23
4
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55R. RistolainenD000050.12310—25:25
9J. EichelC011010.430005222:01
62B. MontourD000030.12012—21:26
23S. ReinhartC000-110.16000020:53
68V. OlofssonL000-100.13000—20:14
33C. MillerD101010.22220—17:59
4Z. BogosianD000+100.00224—17:55
10H. JokiharjuD000000.00010—17:00
53J. SkinnerL000010.08000—16:41
6M. ScandellaD011+210.05110—15:46
90M. JohanssonL011+100.141001715:11
22J. LarssonL101+210.182001414:58
74R. AsplundC011+110.110003314:10
21K. OkposoR101+110.27300—13:40
28Z. GirgensonsC000+110.13300013:18
13J. VeseyL011+120.33010—13:06
43C. ShearyL000010.15000—09:21
71E. RodriguesC000020.040004308:09
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(W)28262.9292.67+0.6761:13

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).