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Lightning at Predators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
Nashville Predators
2
Final/OTTV NBCSN, SN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 3-2 in overtime, Nikita Kucherov scoring at 2:35. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 2:35 of overtime, which took the Lightning's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 1.9; shots on goal were TBL 31, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 70% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 30 of 32 (.938); Pekka Rinne stopped 28 of 31 (.903). Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Kyle Turris (1 G, 1 A), 3. Pekka Rinne (28 saves, .903).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    K. Turris1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    P. Rinne28 saves, .903

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TBLTBL1311501013331
NSHNSH0131111701232

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    V. Hedman(5)
    S. Stamkos (14), T. Johnson (7)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:46

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(10)
    K. Turris (6)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    6:13
  2. TBL
    O. Palat(9)
    N. Kucherov (20), K. Shattenkirk (15)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    6:44

3rd period

  1. NSH
    K. Turris(5)PPG
    M. Ekholm (9), R. Ellis (16)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +28 pts
    2-2
    9:51

Overtime

  1. TBL
    N. Kucherov(10)
    S. Stamkos (15), M. Sergachev (12)
    deflectedxG 0.14win prob +51 pts
    3-2
    2:35

Penalties

TBL 15 PIM·NSH 26 PIM

1st

  • 11:27TBLCarter Verhaeghe · Interferencedrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min

2nd

  • 0:13TBLNikita Kucherov · High stickingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
  • 2:53TBLLuke Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 2:53NSHAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Luke Schenn5 min
  • 9:10NSHRyan Johansen · Elbowingdrawn by Brayden Point5 min
  • 9:10NSHRyan Johansen · Game misconduct10 min

3rd

  • 4:01NSHMathieu Olivier · High stickingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 7:59TBLErik Cernak · Illegal check to headdrawn by Daniel Carr2 min
  • 13:01TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min
  • 13:01NSHDante Fabbro · Roughingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 13:01TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min
  • 16:03NSHNick Bonino · High stickingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalTBL goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, OT 2:35 — TBL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.24R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.13C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.12C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.11C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.10M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.08D. Carr · On goal · xG 0.08M. Olivier · On goal · xG 0.07K. Turris · Goal · xG 0.06C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.05D. Carr · On goal · xG 0.05C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.05M. Olivier · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ellis · Missed · xG 0.04C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.04R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.03K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.02K. Turris · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01M. Olivier · Missed · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Carr · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ellis · On goal · xG 0.00A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.00R. Grimaldi · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH2 G · 1.9 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNSH
3.03 G
All situations
2 G1.9
1.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
1.20 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 87 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL70%30%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.01 – 1.90

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNSH
31
Shots on goal
32
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/3
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
26
17
Hits
14
10
Blocked shots
11
4
Giveaways
7
7
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD101+220.12100—23:41
18O. PalatL101+120.07110—22:53
71A. CirelliC000+120.200106722:43
86N. KucherovR112+230.56002—21:42
27R. McDonaghD000000.03110—21:19
21B. PointC000+120.410005020:48
98M. SergachevD011010.04020—19:41
91S. StamkosC022+160.903105319:08
37Y. GourdeC000010.14210017:16
81E. CernakD000030.04102—16:07
22K. ShattenkirkD011+220.05110—16:00
9T. JohnsonC011+120.110002015:41
13C. PaquetteC000020.144144613:28
14P. MaroonL000020.06200—13:18
44J. RuttaD000-100.03010—10:51
2L. SchennD000000.01105—10:25
7M. JosephR000-110.10000—09:33
23C. VerhaegheC000-100.04002005:19
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)32302.9381.90-0.1062:35

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).