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Wild at Sabres
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV FS-N, FS-WI·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-1. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Parise's goal at 7:14 of the first period, which took the Wild's chances from 46% to 59%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 3.0 to 2.0; shots on goal were MIN 26, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Alex Stalock stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.0 goals saved above expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Zach Parise (2 G), 2. Alex Stalock (30 saves, .968), 3. Jason Zucker (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    Z. Parise2 G
  2. ★★
    MIN
    A. Stalock30 saves, .968
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    J. Zucker1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN21211113426
BUFBUF010010111131

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. MIN
    Z. Parise(7)
    J. Eriksson Ek (6)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    7:14
  2. MIN
    Z. Parise(8)PPG
    R. Suter (8), K. Fiala (4)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    2-0
    19:56

2nd period

  1. MIN
    J. Brodin(1)
    J. Zucker (8), M. Zuccarello (5)
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    5:29

3rd period

  1. BUF
    B. Montour(1)
    J. Eichel (12), V. Olofsson (8)
    wristxG 0.41win prob +1 pts
    3-1
    16:11
  2. MIN
    J. Zucker(6)EN
    E. Staal (9), M. Koivu (8)
    wristxG 0.94win prob +1 pts
    4-1
    17:46

Penalties

MIN 6 PIM·BUF 14 PIM

1st

  • 3:26BUFJake McCabe · Holdingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min
  • 4:55MINZach Parise · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Linus Ullmark2 min
  • 18:56BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Trippingdrawn by Mats Zuccarello2 min

2nd

  • 5:29BUFserved by J. Skinner · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 7:32BUFJack Eichel · Roughingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 7:32BUFJack Eichel · Roughingdrawn by Joel Eriksson Ek2 min
  • 10:24MINJared Spurgeon · Trippingdrawn by Zemgus Girgensons2 min
  • 15:40BUFBrandon Montour · Cross checkingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

3rd

  • 3:25BUFHenri Jokiharju · Trippingdrawn by Carson Soucy2 min
  • 8:52MINMikko Koivu · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMIN goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Zach Parise, 1st 7:14 — MIN 46% → 59%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.41V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Vesey · On goal · xG 0.11C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.10J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.09V. Olofsson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.09E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.08B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.07C. Lazar · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.06C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.05J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.04J. Vesey · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.03C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gilmour · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · Missed · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.01C. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 2.0 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsBUF
3.03 G
All situations
1 G2.0
1.32 G
Even strength
1 G1.1
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN51%49%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.06 – 2.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsBUF
26
Shots on goal
31
56%
Faceoffs
44%
1/7
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
14
7
Hits
8
11
Blocked shots
3
3
Giveaways
10
2
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20R. SuterD011000.00020—28:42
46J. SpurgeonD000+120.06012—24:42
25J. BrodinD101+220.14100—22:07
11Z. PariseL202+140.5702210018:19
24M. DumbaD000+230.12020—18:09
12E. StaalC011+220.311105317:20
16J. ZuckerL112+220.96000—17:17
9M. KoivuC011+110.070025416:26
19L. KuninC000-120.320003815:52
14J. Eriksson EkC011010.011006415:50
77B. HuntD000-100.02010—15:43
36M. ZuccarelloR011+140.24000—14:54
22K. FialaL011+100.02100—14:38
18J. GreenwayL000-110.04020—13:52
38R. HartmanR000010.0720010011:40
21C. SoucyD000000.00000—10:42
49V. RaskC000010.040005009:48
6R. DonatoC000000.00100007:59
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
32A. Stalock(W)31301.9682.02+1.0260:00

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).