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Hurricanes at Sabres
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres

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Carolina Hurricanes
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
4
Final/OTTV FS-CR, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-4 in overtime, Dougie Hamilton scoring at 2:28. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dougie Hamilton's goal at 2:28 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.7 to 2.1; shots on goal were CAR 29, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 1.3 goals below expected; Carter Hutton stopped 24 of 29 (.828), 2.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Teuvo Teravainen (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jeff Skinner (1 G, 1 A), 3. Andrei Svechnikov (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    T. Teravainen1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    A. Svechnikov1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CARCAR210171913529
BUFBUF1911021400433

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(8)
    C. Sheary (2), E. Rodrigues (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:26
  2. CAR
    J. Staal(3)
    B. Pesce (5), J. Edmundson (3)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    12:07
  3. CAR
    S. Aho(9)PPG
    T. Teravainen (12), A. Svechnikov (12)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    17:17

2nd period

  1. CAR
    T. Teravainen(5)
    S. Aho (6), A. Svechnikov (13)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    0:49
  2. BUF
    C. Lazar(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.21win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    15:04

3rd period

  1. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.20win prob +36 pts
    3-3
    13:35
  2. CAR
    A. Svechnikov(8)PPG
    T. Teravainen (13), D. Hamilton (12)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +34 pts
    4-3
    16:06
  3. BUF
    J. Larsson(2)
    J. Skinner (4), V. Olofsson (6)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +46 pts
    4-4
    19:19

Overtime

  1. CAR
    D. Hamilton(9)
    M. Necas (9)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +51 pts
    5-4
    2:28

Penalties

CAR 8 PIM·BUF 28 PIM

1st

  • 8:38CARSebastian Aho · Slashingdrawn by Jack Eichel2 min
  • 14:09CARBrian Gibbons · Holdingdrawn by Jimmy Vesey2 min
  • 15:38BUFKyle Okposo · Hookingdrawn by Lucas Wallmark2 min

2nd

  • 7:02CARAndrei Svechnikov · High stickingdrawn by Henri Jokiharju2 min

3rd

  • 5:03BUFJohan Larsson · High stickingdrawn by Ryan Dzingel2 min
  • 15:33BUFSam Reinhart · High stickingdrawn by Joel Edmundson2 min
  • 16:06BUFSam Reinhart · Misconductdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov10 min

OT

  • 1:19CARAndrei Svechnikov · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 1:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Interferencedrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 2:28BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Game misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCAR goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Dougie Hamilton, OT 2:28 — CAR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.24C. Lazar · Goal · xG 0.21H. Jokiharju · Goal · xG 0.20J. Larsson · Goal · xG 0.15V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.15J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.14J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.12S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.11J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.10J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.10C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.09R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.09J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.08J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.07E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.07J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.06V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.05J. Eichel · Missed · xG 0.05J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.04E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.04R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.03V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Eichel · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01V. Olofsson · On goal · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · Missed · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.00C. Lazar · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 2.7 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsBUF
2.15 G
All situations
4 G2.7
1.73 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.32 G
Power play
0 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR40%60%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.08 – 2.59

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
33
62%
Faceoffs
38%
2/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
28
11
Hits
29
5
Blocked shots
11
13
Giveaways
6
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
19D. HamiltonD112+130.21200—25:18
22B. PesceD011000.04000—24:20
74J. SlavinD000020.04010—24:20
20S. AhoC112+230.211027022:14
86T. TeravainenC123+130.4100010021:52
6J. EdmundsonD011+110.06000—21:25
37A. SvechnikovR123+110.08304—20:18
11J. StaalC101060.431005517:43
13W. FoegeleL000+110.0301010015:24
18R. DzingelC000000.00110013:44
56E. HaulaL000-210.130007313:03
51J. GardinerD000-320.01100—12:48
88M. NecasC011010.06000012:47
21N. NiederreiterR000-200.08010—12:42
71L. WallmarkC000-220.130105811:50
4H. FleuryD000-210.00100—11:04
23B. McGinnL000-120.16000—11:01
29B. GibbonsC000-200.00102009:38
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(W)33294.8792.66-1.3462:28

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).