Golden Knights at Capitals 2-5 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Vegas Golden Knights

Washington Capitals

▸5

FinalTV ESPN+, ATTSN-RM·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Vegas Golden Knights 5-2. The Capitals scored first and never trailed. The Capitals led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonas Siegenthaler's goal at 15:32 of the second period, which took the Capitals' chances from 73% to 89%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 7.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were VGK 32, WSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Capitals win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 29 of 33 (.879); Braden Holtby stopped 30 of 32 (.938). Three stars: 1. Evgeny Kuznetsov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jonas Siegenthaler (1 G), 3. Nicklas Backstrom (2 G).

Three stars

★
E. Kuznetsov1 G, 1 A
★★
J. Siegenthaler1 G
★★★
N. Backstrom2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
VGK	17	113	012	232
WSH	211	18	215	534

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

E. Kuznetsov(6)
D. Orlov (7), J. Vrana (6)
wristxG 0.22win prob +11 pts
0-1
0:58
T. Wilson(8)
J. Vrana (7)
wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
0-2
5:53
M. Pacioretty(5)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
1-2
8:57

2nd period

J. Siegenthaler(1)
T. Boyd (4)
wristxG 0.08win prob +16 pts
1-3
15:32
R. Smith(10)PPG
J. Marchessault (8), C. Eakin (3)
slapxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
2-3
17:27

3rd period

N. Backstrom(3)PPG
J. Carlson (19), E. Kuznetsov (10)
wristxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
2-4
11:30
N. Backstrom(4)EN
T. Oshie (5), J. Carlson (20)
wristxG 0.49
2-5
19:14

Penalties

14 PIM·

10 PIM

1st

3:38Jonathan Marchessault · Hookingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
14:25Cody Eakin · Hookingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
19:57Radko Gudas · Interferencedrawn by Tomas Nosek2 min

2nd

12:27Tomas Nosek · Trippingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
16:00Garnet Hathaway · Elbowingdrawn by Max Pacioretty2 min
20:00T.J. Oshie · Roughingdrawn by Brayden McNabb2 min

3rd

5:45served by A. Ovechkin · Too many men on the ice2 min
10:19Jon Merrill · Slashingdrawn by Evgeny Kuznetsov2 min
12:00Cody Eakin · Roughingdrawn by Tom Wilson2 min
12:00Tom Wilson · Roughingdrawn by Cody Eakin2 min
13:17Jon Merrill · Hookingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
14:20Deryk Engelland · Slashingdrawn by T.J. Oshie2 min
20:00served by J. Merrill · Game misconduct team staff0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: WSH

100%

Biggest swing: Jonas Siegenthaler, 2nd 15:32 — WSH 73% → 89%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

5 G · 7.2 xG · 55 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.0 xG · 40 att WSH

5 G · 7.2 xG · 55 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.02 G
All situations: 4 G7.2; 1.21 G
Even strength: 3 G1.7; 0.81 G
Power play: 1 G1.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

26%74%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.98 – 3.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

32
Shots on goal: 34; 47%
Faceoffs: 53%; 1/4
Power play: 1/6; 14
Penalty minutes: 10; 19
Hits: 27; 7
Blocked shots: 14; 7
Giveaways: 9; 7
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Vegas Golden Knights skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
27S. TheodoreD	0	0	0	0	2	0.07	0	0	0	—	22:04
88N. SchmidtD	0	0	0	-1	5	0.15	0	0	0	—	20:44
71W. KarlssonC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	1	0	40	19:55
3B. McNabbD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	3	1	0	—	19:25
61M. StoneR	0	0	0	-1	2	0.22	1	0	0	—	19:24
19R. SmithR	1	0	1	-1	2	0.24	0	0	0	—	18:51
26P. StastnyC	0	0	0	-1	3	0.28	0	0	0	56	18:26
67M. PaciorettyL	1	0	1	-1	6	0.54	0	1	0	—	17:27
5D. EngellandD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	3	2	2	—	17:21
81J. MarchessaultR	0	1	1	-2	2	0.11	1	0	2	—	17:18
22N. HoldenD	0	0	0	-3	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	17:06
15J. MerrillD	0	0	0	-2	1	0.07	0	0	4	—	16:08
21C. EakinC	0	1	1	-1	1	0.04	0	0	4	54	13:20
9C. GlassC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	0	0	0	40	11:44
10N. RoyC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	2	0	0	33	10:33
92T. NosekL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	0	0	2	—	09:41
28W. CarrierL	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	0	0	—	09:39
75R. ReavesR	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	7	0	0	—	08:55

Vegas Golden Knights goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29M. Fleury(L)	33	29	4	.879	3.52	-0.48	58:29

Season series

Tied 1-1

Nov 92@5this game
Feb 172@3Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Vegas Golden Knights at Washington Capitals

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score