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Predators at Avalanche
NHL

Nashville Predators at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
4
Colorado Avalanche
▸9
FinalTV FS-TN, ALT·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Nashville Predators 9-4. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Avalanche led 8-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joonas Donskoi's goal at 5:26 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 36% to 53%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 3.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 24, COL 45. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 19 of 23 (.826), 2.6 goals below expected; Pavel Francouz stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Joonas Donskoi (3 G), 2. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 3 A), 3. Ryan Graves (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    J. Donskoi3 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    R. Graves1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH1626112424
COLCOL21861819945

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(2)
    M. Nieto (4), R. Graves (2)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:49
  2. NSH
    R. Ellis(3)
    R. Johansen (10)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    12:08
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(9)PPG
    C. Makar (12), A. Burakovsky (6)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    17:56

2nd period

  1. NSH
    F. Forsberg(7)
    V. Arvidsson (5), R. Johansen (11)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    1:25
  2. NSH
    M. Duchene(5)PPG
    V. Arvidsson (6), R. Josi (12)
    deflectedxG 0.13win prob +13 pts
    3-2
    4:55
  3. COL
    J. Donskoi(6)
    N. MacKinnon (11), M. Calvert (6)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    5:26
  4. COL
    R. Graves(2)
    N. Kadri (5), T. Jost (2)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +17 pts
    3-4
    5:46
  5. COL
    A. Burakovsky(5)
    V. Kamenev (2), E. Johnson (1)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 pts
    3-5
    6:57
  6. COL
    M. Nieto(4)SHG
    J. Compher (6), R. Graves (3)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +11 pts
    3-6
    7:47
  7. COL
    M. Calvert(4)
    N. MacKinnon (12), C. Makar (13)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +3 pts
    3-7
    10:01
  8. COL
    J. Donskoi(7)
    E. Johnson (2), N. MacKinnon (13)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
    3-8
    13:26

3rd period

  1. NSH
    C. Smith(2)
    N. Bonino (5), R. Grimaldi (7)
    wristxG 0.13
    4-8
    12:41
  2. COL
    J. Donskoi(8)PPG
    A. Burakovsky (7)
    wristxG 0.14
    4-9
    17:53

Penalties

NSH 12 PIM·COL 8 PIM

1st

  • 3:12NSHRyan Johansen · Hookingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 4:06COLNazem Kadri · Interferencedrawn by Calle Jarnkrok2 min
  • 17:04NSHMatt Duchene · Slashingdrawn by Joonas Donskoi2 min
  • 17:18NSHAustin Watson · Slashingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min
  • 19:12NSHRoman Josi · Cross checkingdrawn by Pierre-Edouard Bellemare2 min

2nd

  • 4:09COLRyan Graves · Cross checkingdrawn by Mikael Granlund2 min
  • 7:10COLMark Barberio · Trippingdrawn by Viktor Arvidsson2 min
  • 17:11NSHColton Sissons · High stickingdrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

3rd

  • 2:33COLMark Barberio · High stickingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
  • 17:21NSHMatt Duchene · Slashingdrawn by Samuel Girard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalNSH goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Joonas Donskoi, 2nd 5:26 — COL 36% → 53%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.18T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.18J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.18J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.16P. Bellemare · On goal · xG 0.14J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.14M. Calvert · Missed · xG 0.14T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.14A. Burakovsky · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.13N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.13J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.12M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.11M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.11J. Donskoi · On goal · xG 0.10J. Donskoi · Goal · xG 0.10T. Jost · Missed · xG 0.09T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.09N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08J. Donskoi · Missed · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08A. Burakovsky · Goal · xG 0.07N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.07T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.07M. Calvert · Goal · xG 0.07M. Nieto · Goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.05E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.03S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.03N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Barberio · On goal · xG 0.02E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.02R. Graves · Goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.01E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.00S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.00E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.00
COL9 G · 3.7 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCOL
2.64 G
All situations
9 G3.7
1.53 G
Even strength
6 G2.3
0.81 G
Power play
2 G1.3
0.20 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 95 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH32%68%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 3.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCOL
24
Shots on goal
45
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/4
Power play
2/6
12
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
16
22
Blocked shots
17
2
Giveaways
14
9
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD011-220.16222—22:36
4R. EllisD101-130.10330—22:14
14M. EkholmD000-330.05120—22:00
5D. HamhuisD000+100.00230—17:11
13N. BoninoC011010.120305616:38
92R. JohansenC022000.161024716:28
57D. FabbroD000-200.00010—16:23
10C. SissonsC000-330.352024315:58
95M. DucheneC101-210.202046715:43
33V. ArvidssonL022030.54010—15:27
9F. ForsbergL101030.47000—14:46
19C. JarnkrokC000-210.0700010014:40
7Y. WeberD000000.00200—14:05
23R. GrimaldiR011-100.03110—14:03
51A. WatsonL000-200.00442—13:26
64M. GranlundC000-210.04220013:20
8K. TurrisC000-110.060005713:18
15C. SmithC101020.21000012:24
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros23194.8261.38-2.6233:03
35P. Rinne(L)22175.7732.28-2.7226:57

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).