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Flames at Predators
NHL

Calgary Flames at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
▸6
Nashville Predators
5
Final/OTTV NHLN, FS-TN·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Calgary Flames beat the Nashville Predators 6-5 in overtime, Matthew Tkachuk scoring at 4:58. The Flames came back from three goals down. The Predators led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Matthew Tkachuk's goal at 4:58 of overtime, which took the Flames' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — CGY 2.5, NSH 2.5; shots on goal were CGY 27, NSH 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. David Rittich stopped 31 of 36 (.861), 2.5 goals below expected; Pekka Rinne stopped 21 of 27 (.778), 3.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matthew Tkachuk (2 G, 1 A), 2. Austin Watson (2 G, 2 A), 3. Calle Jarnkrok (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CGY
    M. Tkachuk2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    A. Watson2 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    C. Jarnkrok2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
CGYCGY140541414627
NSHNSH2152121702536

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. NSH
    N. Bonino(7)
    C. Smith (4), R. Ellis (12)
    backhandxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:33
  2. NSH
    A. Watson(2)
    C. Sissons (5), M. Irwin (1)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    10:15
  3. CGY
    D. Ryan(2)
    M. Tkachuk (7), N. Hanifin (1)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    15:27

2nd period

  1. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(4)SHG
    A. Watson (2)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +17 pts
    1-3
    4:36
  2. NSH
    C. Jarnkrok(5)SHG
    A. Watson (3)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 pts
    1-4
    18:52

3rd period

  1. CGY
    R. Andersson(2)
    J. Gaudreau (9), S. Monahan (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +6 pts
    2-4
    1:58
  2. CGY
    E. Lindholm(9)
    S. Monahan (8)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +10 pts
    3-4
    13:38
  3. CGY
    A. Quine(1)
    M. Giordano (7), D. Ryan (5)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +39 pts
    4-4
    16:39
  4. NSH
    A. Watson(3)
    C. Sissons (6), M. Ekholm (5)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +43 pts
    4-5
    18:38
  5. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(5)
    S. Monahan (9), J. Gaudreau (10)
    wristxG 0.36win prob +44 pts
    5-5
    19:21

Overtime

  1. CGY
    M. Tkachuk(6)
    E. Lindholm (3), T. Brodie (7)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +51 pts
    6-5
    4:58

Penalties

CGY 6 PIM·NSH 6 PIM

1st

  • 2:05CGYAndrew Mangiapane · Slashingdrawn by Dante Fabbro2 min
  • 11:29CGYAlan Quine · Cross checkingdrawn by Rocco Grimaldi2 min
  • 17:15NSHCraig Smith · Interferencedrawn by Mark Giordano2 min

2nd

  • 3:40NSHserved by K. Turris · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 18:06NSHKyle Turris · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by David Rittich2 min
  • 19:24CGYMikael Backlund · Trippingdrawn by Ryan Ellis2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalCGY goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Matthew Tkachuk, OT 4:58 — CGY 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.22A. Watson · Goal · xG 0.21N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.16C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.14R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.12R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.12N. Bonino · Goal · xG 0.11M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.09F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.09N. Bonino · Missed · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.09C. Jarnkrok · Goal · xG 0.08M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.08F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.08C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.07C. Sissons · Missed · xG 0.06C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.06F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.05M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.05C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.05M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.04M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03R. Grimaldi · Missed · xG 0.03M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.02D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.02R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamhuis · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02V. Arvidsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Sissons · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Irwin · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.01D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.01N. Bonino · On goal · xG 0.00A. Watson · On goal · xG 0.00D. Hamhuis · Missed · xG 0.00M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 2.5 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsNSH
2.56 G
All situations
5 G2.5
1.86 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
2 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY49%51%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.49 – 2.53

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsNSH
27
Shots on goal
36
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
13
Hits
6
7
Blocked shots
20
8
Giveaways
14
8
Takeaways
21

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD011+130.08210—25:13
28E. LindholmC112+130.130106223:29
13J. GaudreauL022030.32000—23:20
19M. TkachukL213+140.77310—23:15
23S. MonahanC033-120.350005022:52
11M. BacklundC000010.222024622:35
7T. BrodieD011+210.01000—21:34
24T. HamonicD000-210.15010—21:04
55N. HanifinD011-210.01010—20:20
4R. AnderssonD101+320.16210—19:49
58O. KylingtonD000+120.04000—13:39
93S. BennettC000010.070005012:15
67M. FrolikR000000.01000—11:48
88A. MangiapaneL000-110.03002—10:58
10D. RyanC112+110.100006010:51
17M. LucicL000000.00200—09:21
77M. JankowskiL000000.001003308:47
89A. QuineC101010.09112008:32
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(W)36315.8612.53-2.4764:10

Season series

NSH leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).