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Red Wings at Senators
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
2
Ottawa Senators
▸5
FinalTV FS-D+, SN1·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Senators led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jean-Gabriel Pageau's goal at 5:27 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.1 to 2.7; shots on goal were DET 36, OTT 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Jonathan Bernier stopped 33 of 37 (.892), 0.8 goals below expected; Anders Nilsson stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Nilsson (34 saves, .944), 2. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G), 3. Anthony Duclair (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Nilsson34 saves, .944
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Pageau1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    A. Duclair2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET011212013236
OTTOTT112312114538

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    C. Tierney(3)
    B. Ryan (3), T. Chabot (5)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    6:16

2nd period

  1. DET
    D. Helm(4)
    J. Abdelkader (3), J. de la Rose (3)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:45
  2. DET
    T. Bertuzzi(4)
    P. Nemeth (2), F. Hronek (4)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    2:25
  3. OTT
    M. Borowiecki(1)
    N. Paul (1), C. Brown (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    3:15
  4. OTT
    J. Pageau(3)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    5:27
  5. OTT
    A. Duclair(2)
    T. Chabot (6), C. Tierney (3)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    17:09

3rd period

  1. OTT
    A. Duclair(3)EN
    V. Namestnikov (3)
    wristxG 0.91win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    18:12

Penalties

DET 4 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:53DETMike Green · Cross checkingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 14:48OTTBobby Ryan · Hookingdrawn by Taro Hirose2 min
  • 18:10OTTNikita Zaitsev · Interferencedrawn by Justin Abdelkader2 min

2nd

  • 4:43OTTRon Hainsey · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 11:44DETserved by T. Hirose · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 14:42OTTNick Paul · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min
  • 18:52OTTAnthony Duclair · Slashingdrawn by Trevor Daley2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalDET goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, 2nd 5:27 — OTT 49% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.91C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.20B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.19V. Namestnikov · Missed · xG 0.17J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.16A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.12J. Pageau · Goal · xG 0.12C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.12N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.12L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.11C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.11M. Borowiecki · Goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09A. Duclair · Goal · xG 0.09C. Tierney · Missed · xG 0.09T. Ennis · Missed · xG 0.08B. Ryan · Missed · xG 0.08B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07J. Beaudin · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.07L. Brown · Missed · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06S. Sabourin · On goal · xG 0.06D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.05A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.05N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.04N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.04A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.03M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.03D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.02V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.02S. Sabourin · Missed · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT5 G · 4.1 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsOTT
2.72 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.00 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET41%59%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.64 – 3.17

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsOTT
36
Shots on goal
38
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/5
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
18
Hits
25
9
Blocked shots
12
10
Giveaways
13
3
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17F. HronekD011-130.06300—21:06
39A. ManthaR000-320.34500—21:03
25M. GreenD000-120.09112—20:47
71D. LarkinC000-230.061101420:31
22P. NemethD011030.15000—20:05
59T. BertuzziL101-250.75100—19:22
72A. AthanasiouC000-240.35000019:07
51V. FilppulaC000-110.110104118:17
21D. CholowskiD000-310.01010—18:01
83T. DaleyD000000.04010—17:08
74M. BoweyD000010.04210—16:46
67T. HiroseL000020.09000—16:38
81F. NielsenC000-130.201004614:34
43D. HelmC101+120.201005012:36
37E. SvechnikovL000-120.09210—12:16
8J. AbdelkaderL011+100.0901010011:31
61J. de la RoseL011010.010005610:25
41L. GlendeningC000-110.011108306:39
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
45J. Bernier(L)37334.8923.21-0.7959:08

Season series

OTT leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).