Stars at Penguins 2-4 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Dallas Stars

Pittsburgh Penguins

▸4

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Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Dallas Stars 4-2. The Stars scored first; the Penguins answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kris Letang's goal at 6:34 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 3.2 to 1.8; shots on goal were DAL 24, PIT 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Anton Khudobin stopped 29 of 32 (.906); Matt Murray stopped 22 of 24 (.917). Three stars: 1. Kris Letang (2 G), 2. Patric Hornqvist (1 G, 2 A), 3. John Klingberg (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
K. Letang2 G
★★
P. Hornqvist1 G, 2 A
★★★
J. Klingberg1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
DAL	05	111	18	224
PIT	010	116	37	433

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

R. Hintz(5)
J. Benn (2), J. Klingberg (2)
wristxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
1-0
5:10
J. McCann(3)
M. Pettersson (4), P. Hornqvist (2)
tip-inxG 0.08win prob +22 pts
1-1
17:36

3rd period

K. Letang(3)
D. Simon (3)
wristxG 0.09win prob +28 pts
1-2
6:34
P. Hornqvist(4)
B. Dumoulin (3), D. Kahun (2)
tip-inxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
1-3
10:20
J. Klingberg(1)
M. Heiskanen (3)
wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
2-3
12:01
K. Letang(4)EN
P. Hornqvist (3), J. Guentzel (3)
wristxG 0.45win prob +5 pts
2-4
19:38

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

5:26Denis Gurianov · Hookingdrawn by Marcus Pettersson2 min

3rd

1:44Brandon Tanev · Roughingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
12:58Jamie Oleksiak · Trippingdrawn by Jared McCann2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: PIT

100%

Biggest swing: Kris Letang, 3rd 6:34 — PIT 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

4 G · 3.2 xG · 49 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 1.8 xG · 34 att PIT

4 G · 3.2 xG · 49 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.82 G
All situations: 3 G3.2; 1.72 G
Even strength: 3 G1.9; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

31%69%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.68 – 2.70

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 33; 60%
Faceoffs: 40%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 39
Hits: 32; 9
Blocked shots: 13; 9
Giveaways: 10; 4
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Dallas Stars skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
4M. HeiskanenD	0	1	1	-2	3	0.06	1	0	0	—	25:17
3J. KlingbergD	1	1	2	0	4	0.15	3	1	0	—	25:08
5A. SekeraD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.07	4	1	0	—	22:45
23E. LindellD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.02	0	2	0	—	21:50
91T. SeguinC	0	0	0	-3	2	0.64	0	0	0	67	21:45
16J. PavelskiC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.23	3	0	0	83	17:58
47A. RadulovR	0	0	0	+1	0	0.03	1	1	0	—	17:16
13M. JanmarkC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	17:04
14J. BennL	0	1	1	0	0	0.02	1	0	0	100	15:06
10C. PerryR	0	0	0	-2	0	0.00	3	0	0	—	15:05
24R. HintzC	1	0	1	-1	2	0.15	5	1	0	45	14:58
12R. FaksaC	0	0	0	0	0	0.11	3	0	0	45	14:49
18J. DickinsonC	0	0	0	0	2	0.11	5	1	0	60	13:38
2J. OleksiakD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	4	1	2	—	12:01
42T. FedunD	0	0	0	0	2	0.02	1	0	0	—	11:48
34D. GurianovR	0	0	0	0	2	0.15	1	0	2	—	10:38
11A. CoglianoC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	0	0	10:31
37J. DowlingC	0	0	0	0	2	0.01	2	1	0	67	09:22

Dallas Stars goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35A. Khudobin(L)	32	29	3	.906	2.72	-0.28	58:46

Season series

PIT leads 2-0

Oct 182@4this game
Oct 263@0Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Dallas Stars at Pittsburgh Penguins

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score