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Oilers at Avalanche
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
2
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV ALT, SNW·Pepsi Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Edmonton Oilers 6-2. The Avalanche came back from two goals down. The Avalanche led 4-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Kerfoot's goal at 7:43 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 53% to 71%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 2.3 to 1.8; shots on goal were EDM 29, COL 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Mikko Koskinen stopped 23 of 29 (.793), 3.7 goals below expected; Semyon Varlamov stopped 27 of 29 (.931). Three stars: 1. Alexander Kerfoot (2 G), 2. Tyson Barrie (1 G, 1 A), 3. Colin Wilson (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    A. Kerfoot2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    T. Barrie1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Wilson1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
EDMEDM21007012229
COLCOL0841526629

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. EDM
    M. Lucic(6)
    M. Benning (11), R. Nugent-Hopkins (38)
    deflectedxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    9:20
  2. EDM
    D. Nurse(9)
    S. Gagner (7), R. Nugent-Hopkins (39)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +16 pts
    2-0
    13:01

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(40)PPG
    G. Landeskog (39)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    4:56
  2. COL
    T. Barrie(13)
    N. Zadorov (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:56
  3. COL
    A. Kerfoot(14)
    M. Nieto (19), E. Johnson (17)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    7:43
  4. COL
    C. Wilson(12)
    M. Calvert (15), I. Cole (13)
    backhandxG 0.03win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    12:04

3rd period

  1. COL
    A. Kerfoot(15)
    G. Landeskog (40), T. Barrie (45)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +4 pts
    2-5
    7:30
  2. COL
    S. Andrighetto(7)
    T. Jost (14), G. Bourque (6)
    snapxG 0.13
    2-6
    15:07

Penalties

EDM 6 PIM·COL 2 PIM

1st

  • 5:08COLTyson Barrie · Trippingdrawn by Milan Lucic2 min

2nd

  • 0:38EDMKris Russell · Hookingdrawn by Carl Soderberg2 min
  • 2:28EDMBrad Malone · High stickingdrawn by Gabriel Landeskog2 min
  • 4:31EDMBrad Malone · Interferencedrawn by Nathan MacKinnon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalEDM goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Alexander Kerfoot, 2nd 7:43 — COL 53% → 71%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.27G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.16A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.15S. Andrighetto · Goal · xG 0.13T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.11N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.11N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · Goal · xG 0.10A. Kerfoot · Missed · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.08T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.07T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.06S. Andrighetto · Missed · xG 0.06C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.05M. Calvert · On goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · On goal · xG 0.05T. Barrie · Goal · xG 0.05C. Soderberg · Missed · xG 0.05C. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.05G. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.04T. Barrie · On goal · xG 0.04A. Kerfoot · On goal · xG 0.04G. Landeskog · On goal · xG 0.04C. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · On goal · xG 0.03N. Zadorov · Missed · xG 0.03T. Jost · On goal · xG 0.02N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02T. Barrie · Missed · xG 0.01S. Girard · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01G. Landeskog · Missed · xG 0.01S. Andrighetto · Missed · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.01
COL6 G · 2.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsCOL
1.82 G
All situations
6 G2.3
1.32 G
Even strength
5 G1.9
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM38%62%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.73 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsCOL
29
Shots on goal
29
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
24
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
11
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25D. NurseD101-140.13340—21:37
77O. KlefbomD000-130.08300—21:31
29L. DraisaitlC000-320.200005321:25
97C. McDavidC000-220.090005020:31
83M. BenningD011-120.10100—20:09
6A. LarssonD000-130.08100—19:48
4K. RussellD000-120.07442—19:39
44Z. KassianR000-330.54100—17:37
2A. SekeraD000-110.01120—16:46
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC022000.000005016:26
39A. ChiassonR000-120.12000—15:47
22T. RiederL000000.00100—15:09
89S. GagnerC011+120.040005013:22
27M. LucicL101010.25210—12:52
8T. RattieR000-100.00000—11:57
12C. CaveC000000.002004411:53
43J. CurrieR000020.03120—10:23
24B. MaloneC000000.004047508:43
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
19M. Koskinen(L)29236.7932.33-3.6760:00

Season series

COL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).