Blue Jackets at Sabres 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Columbus Blue Jackets

▸4

Buffalo Sabres

FinalTV FS-O, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Columbus Blue Jackets beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-0. The Blue Jackets scored first and never trailed. The Blue Jackets led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Bjorkstrand's goal at 13:46 of the first period, which took the Blue Jackets' chances from 62% to 76%. Expected goals favored the Blue Jackets, 3.1 to 2.3; shots on goal were CBJ 36, BUF 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blue Jackets win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 38 of 38 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected; Linus Ullmark stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Pierre-Luc Dubois (1 G, 2 A), 2. Nick Foligno (1 G, 1 A), 3. Sergei Bobrovsky (38 saves, 1.000).

Three stars

★
P. Dubois1 G, 2 A
★★
N. Foligno1 G, 1 A
★★★
S. Bobrovsky38 saves, 1.000

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
CBJ	313	111	012	436
BUF	012	013	013	038

Scoring

4 goals

1st period

P. Dubois(25)
S. Jones (36), Z. Werenski (33)
deflectedxG 0.11win prob +13 pts
1-0
7:14
O. Bjorkstrand(21)
P. Dubois (33), N. Foligno (16)
slapxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
2-0
13:46
N. Foligno(17)
R. Dzingel (29)
wrap-aroundxG 0.16win prob +11 pts
3-0
17:47

2nd period

J. Anderson(27)
P. Dubois (34), R. Dzingel (30)
slapxG 0.06win prob +4 pts
4-0
15:31

Penalties

2 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

11:46Zemgus Girgensons · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Dubinsky2 min
15:11Dean Kukan · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
15:29Victor Olofsson · Holdingdrawn by Boone Jenner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Oliver Bjorkstrand, 1st 13:46 — CBJ 62% → 76%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 3.1 xG · 48 att BUF

0 G · 2.3 xG · 46 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.14 G
All situations: 0 G2.3; 3.04 G
Even strength: 0 G2.3; 0.10 G
Power play: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

64%36%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.04 – 2.25

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

36
Shots on goal: 38; 54%
Faceoffs: 46%; 0/2
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 4; 16
Hits: 16; 11
Blocked shots: 5; 5
Giveaways: 8; 3
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Columbus Blue Jackets skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
65M. NutivaaraD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	22:55
58D. SavardD	0	0	0	0	1	0.17	0	2	0	—	22:08
3S. JonesD	0	1	1	+3	3	0.05	1	1	0	—	20:09
8Z. WerenskiD	0	1	1	+4	1	0.03	0	1	0	—	17:56
14D. KukanD	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	1	2	—	17:49
4S. HarringtonD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	6	0	—	17:09
71N. FolignoL	1	1	2	+2	4	0.51	3	0	0	—	17:00
20R. NashC	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	0	60	16:53
17B. DubinskyC	0	0	0	0	1	0.01	6	0	0	56	16:07
9A. PanarinL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	1	0	0	—	15:23
13C. AtkinsonR	0	0	0	0	3	0.39	2	0	0	50	15:18
95M. DucheneC	0	0	0	0	1	0.02	0	0	0	50	14:48
38B. JennerC	0	0	0	0	3	0.37	0	0	0	67	14:37
10A. WennbergC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	50	14:17
18P. DuboisC	1	2	3	+3	3	0.21	2	0	0	40	14:17
77J. AndersonR	1	0	1	+4	3	0.31	1	0	0	100	14:06
28O. BjorkstrandR	1	0	1	+1	6	0.72	0	0	0	—	13:36
19R. DzingelC	0	2	2	+3	3	0.17	0	0	0	0	13:32

Columbus Blue Jackets goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
72S. Bobrovsky(W)	38	38	0	1.000	2.27	+2.27	60:00

Season series

CBJ leads 2-1

Oct 274@5OTFinal
Jan 295@4Final
Mar 314@0this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Columbus Blue Jackets at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

1st

Box score