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Senators at Oilers
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
▸4
Edmonton Oilers
3
Final/OTTV TVAS, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in overtime, Brady Tkachuk scoring at 2:09. The Senators scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 2:09 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 2.8 to 2.5; shots on goal were OTT 35, EDM 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Craig Anderson stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 0.5 goals below expected; Mikko Koskinen stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 1.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brady Tkachuk (2 G), 2. Connor McDavid (1 G), 3. Thomas Chabot (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk2 G
  2. ★★
    EDM
    C. McDavid1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    T. Chabot1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
OTTOTT2120131812435
EDMEDM1711111100329

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(18)PPG
    C. Wolanin (6), D. DeMelo (17)
    wrap-aroundxG 0.19win prob +9 pts
    1-0
    4:37
  2. EDM
    A. Chiasson(21)
    D. Nurse (29)
    backhandxG 0.22win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    8:12
  3. OTT
    B. Ryan(14)PPG
    T. Chabot (37), C. White (23)
    deflectedxG 0.26win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    15:28

2nd period

  1. EDM
    C. McDavid(38)
    L. Draisaitl (52), Z. Kassian (10)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    2:54

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Gibbons(6)
    M. Paajarvi (6), O. Lindberg (9)
    deflectedxG 0.28win prob +30 pts
    3-2
    7:37
  2. EDM
    C. Cave(3)
    J. Gambardella (2), S. Gagner (6)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +30 pts
    3-3
    8:33

Overtime

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(19)
    R. Balcers (7), C. Anderson (2)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    2:09

Penalties

OTT 4 PIM·EDM 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:51EDMMilan Lucic · Holdingdrawn by Dylan DeMelo2 min
  • 13:34EDMDarnell Nurse · High stickingdrawn by Bobby Ryan2 min
  • 19:06OTTBen Harpur · Roughingdrawn by Alex Chiasson2 min
  • 19:06EDMAlex Chiasson · Roughingdrawn by Ben Harpur2 min

3rd

  • 13:00OTTChristian Jaros · High stickingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalOTT goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, OT 2:09 — OTT 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Chiasson · Goal · xG 0.22R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.15C. McDavid · Goal · xG 0.14L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.14M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.11J. Gambardella · On goal · xG 0.11C. Cave · On goal · xG 0.11A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.10L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.10C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.08Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.07R. Nugent-Hopkins · Missed · xG 0.07S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.07O. Klefbom · Missed · xG 0.07S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.07A. Sekera · Missed · xG 0.07M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.06C. Cave · Goal · xG 0.06R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.05M. Lucic · On goal · xG 0.05Z. Kassian · On goal · xG 0.05O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.05M. Lucic · Missed · xG 0.05C. Cave · Missed · xG 0.04L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.04A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.03C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.03A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02A. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02K. Brodziak · On goal · xG 0.02T. Rieder · On goal · xG 0.02T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.01O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.01A. Sekera · Missed · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.00O. Klefbom · On goal · xG 0.00T. Rieder · Missed · xG 0.00L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 2.5 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsEDM
2.84 G
All situations
3 G2.5
2.12 G
Even strength
3 G2.3
0.62 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT55%45%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.73 – 2.45

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsEDM
35
Shots on goal
29
37%
Faceoffs
63%
2/2
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
31
18
Blocked shots
12
5
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD011040.17120—27:55
2D. DeMeloD011-140.07300—24:21
44J. PageauC000010.162104221:17
36C. WhiteC011-120.120104519:44
9B. RyanR101-130.48000—19:36
67B. HarpurD000020.01212—18:02
38R. BalcersL011010.11010—18:01
86C. WolaninD011-110.07010—17:34
74M. BorowieckiD000000.00350—17:17
83C. JarosD000-110.03522—16:29
7B. TkachukL202+120.383004315:28
14M. VeronneauR000030.18000—14:05
56M. PaajarviL011040.23110—13:57
24O. LindbergL011-150.293202013:52
17B. GibbonsC101-110.28000013:24
71C. TierneyC000000.000004011:46
10A. DuclairL000010.19000—10:47
89M. BoedkerL000-100.00010—08:52
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41C. Anderson(W)29263.8972.46-0.5462:09

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).