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Florida Panthers at Dallas Stars

FinalTV FS-F, FS-SW·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Florida Panthers 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alexander Radulov's goal at 10:32 of the third period, which took the Stars' chances from 52% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Stars, 3.1 to 1.2; shots on goal were FLA 22, DAL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Samuel Montembeault stopped 33 of 36 (.917); Ben Bishop stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alexander Radulov (2 G, 1 A), 2. Aleksander Barkov (2 G), 3. Tyler Seguin (4 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DAL
    A. Radulov2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov2 G
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    T. Seguin4 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
FLAFLA191706222
DALDAL18115213436

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    2:11
  2. DAL
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    17:49

2nd period

  1. DAL
    wristxG 0.04win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    10:38
  2. FLA
    A. Barkov(32)PPG
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    16:57

3rd period

  1. DAL
    J. Benn (23), T. Seguin (41)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +32 pts
    2-3
    10:32
  2. DAL
    T. Seguin (42), J. Benn (24)
    xG 0.37win prob +5 pts
    2-4
    19:20

Penalties

FLA 6 PIM·DAL 6 PIM

1st

  • 18:59FLAAleksander Barkov · Trippingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

2nd

  • 2:43DALJamie Oleksiak · Holdingdrawn by Frank Vatrano2 min
  • 10:06FLAHenrik Borgstrom · Trippingdrawn by Miro Heiskanen2 min
  • 16:17DALTyler Seguin · Delaying game2 min
  • 18:11FLAMacKenzie Weegar · Hookingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

3rd

  • 6:33DALEsa Lindell · Interferencedrawn by Jonathan Huberdeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalFLA goalFinal: DAL 100%

Biggest swing: Alexander Radulov, 3rd 10:32 — DAL 52% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.37J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.17A. Radulov · Goal · xG 0.16B. Ritchie · Missed · xG 0.14M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.14E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.14J. Benn · Goal · xG 0.13R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.12R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.10R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.10A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.09T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.08B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.07T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cogliano · On goal · xG 0.05R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.05T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.05V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.04T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · Goal · xG 0.04R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.04J. L'Esperance · On goal · xG 0.04B. Comeau · Missed · xG 0.04J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.03B. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.03A. Radulov · Missed · xG 0.03V. Nichushkin · Missed · xG 0.03B. Comeau · On goal · xG 0.03J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.02T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Klingberg · Missed · xG 0.02M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.02R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.02J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oleksiak · Missed · xG 0.02J. Oleksiak · Missed · xG 0.02R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.02R. Polak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Janmark · On goal · xG 0.01A. Radulov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Lovejoy · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01B. Lovejoy · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.01J. Oleksiak · Missed · xG 0.01E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL4 G · 3.1 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

FLAvsDAL
1.22 G
All situations
4 G3.1
0.81 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.41 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
FLA22%78%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.21 – 2.73

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

FLAvsDAL
22
Shots on goal
36
43%
Faceoffs
57%
1/3
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
10
Hits
16
15
Blocked shots
16
15
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Florida Panthers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3K. YandleD011-110.01100—23:09
19M. MathesonD000-210.03030—21:59
5A. EkbladD000-200.00020—21:40
21V. TrocheckC011-130.241105021:05
52M. WeegarD000020.03032—19:55
16A. BarkovC202-240.310024419:15
68M. HoffmanC000-110.15000019:13
63E. DadonovL011-210.10000—18:58
11J. HuberdeauL011-220.06010—18:22
72F. VatranoR000020.07400—17:17
13M. PysykD000+100.00120—15:20
2J. BrownD000+100.00120—12:54
22T. BrouwerR000000.00000—11:55
95H. BorgstromC000010.020024311:55
15R. SheahanC000010.01010011:48
88J. McGinnL000010.0210010011:45
73D. HuntL000010.14100—10:22
7C. SceviourC000010.01000009:46
Florida Panthers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33S. Montembeault(L)36333.9172.77-0.2358:50

Season series

DAL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).