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St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators

FinalTV FS-MW, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the St. Louis Blues 2-0. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Christian Wolanin's goal at 13:27 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 53% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 3.6 to 1.8; shots on goal were STL 35, OTT 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 86% of the time. Jake Allen stopped 19 of 20 (.950); Anders Nilsson stopped 35 of 35 (1.000), 3.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Anders Nilsson (35 saves, 1.000), 2. Christian Wolanin (1 G), 3. Max Veronneau.

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. Nilsson35 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    OTT
    C. Wolanin1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Veronneau

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
STLSTL01308014035
OTTOTT0511313221

Scoring

2 goals

2nd period

  1. OTT
    snapxG 0.15win prob +20 pts
    0-1
    13:27

3rd period

  1. OTT
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.46win prob +5 pts
    0-2
    19:03

Penalties

STL 6 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 0:40STLVince Dunn · Holdingdrawn by Anthony Duclair2 min
  • 7:52STLAlexander Steen · Holding the stickdrawn by Ben Harpur2 min
  • 10:18OTTDylan DeMelo · Holdingdrawn by Mackenzie MacEachern2 min
  • 19:26OTTCody Ceci · Holdingdrawn by Ivan Barbashev2 min

3rd

  • 0:38OTTBrady Tkachuk · Slashingdrawn by Vince Dunn2 min
  • 0:38STLVince Dunn · Cross checkingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 14:19OTTChristian Wolanin · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalSTL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Christian Wolanin, 2nd 13:27 — OTT 53% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Tierney · Goal · xG 0.46J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.26M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.18C. Wolanin · Goal · xG 0.15A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.13B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.08B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.06M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.03M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.03J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.03R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02M. Veronneau · On goal · xG 0.02M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.02C. Goloubef · On goal · xG 0.02C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.02E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.02M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01R. Balcers · On goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01B. Harpur · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT2 G · 1.8 xG · 25 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsOTT
3.60 G
All situations
1 G1.8
3.20 G
Even strength
1 G1.3
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 77 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL86%14%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.52 – 1.30

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsOTT
35
Shots on goal
21
57%
Faceoffs
43%
0/3
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
8
22
Hits
29
7
Blocked shots
18
8
Giveaways
19
5
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27A. PietrangeloD000050.13100—25:02
90R. O'ReillyC000-140.300006722:04
19J. BouwmeesterD000020.06100—21:41
55C. ParaykoD000030.13110—21:27
10B. SchennC000-110.3400010020:13
29V. DunnD000-130.09214—19:49
17J. SchwartzL000-120.19000—18:56
21T. BozakC000-110.010005618:32
18R. ThomasC000-140.68010018:09
7P. MaroonL000000.08200—14:34
41R. BortuzzoD000-110.06020—14:08
49I. BarbashevL000-110.231106713:46
20A. SteenL000040.43102—13:39
70O. SundqvistC000020.41200013:34
42M. Del ZottoD000-110.02500—12:49
12Z. SanfordL000010.41200—10:32
15R. FabbriC000-100.00210009:06
62M. MacEachernL000-100.00200—07:24
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34J. Allen(L)20191.9501.30+0.3058:35

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).