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Sabres at Panthers
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Florida Panthers
▸4
FinalTV FS-F, MSG-B·BB&T Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Florida Panthers beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The Sabres scored first; the Panthers answered. The Sabres led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Huberdeau's goal at 3:07 of the third period, which took the Panthers' chances from 26% to 52%. Expected goals were close — BUF 2.5, FLA 2.7; shots on goal were BUF 34, FLA 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Linus Ullmark stopped 37 of 41 (.902), 1.3 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Huberdeau (2 G, 1 A), 2. Aleksander Barkov (1 G, 2 A), 3. Frank Vatrano (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    FLA
    J. Huberdeau2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    FLA
    A. Barkov1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    F. Vatrano2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF06112116234
FLAFLA012012417441

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Eichel(19)PPG
    S. Reinhart (38), J. Skinner (18)
    wristxG 0.29win prob +14 pts
    1-0
    5:14

3rd period

  1. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(14)
    F. Vatrano (12), A. Barkov (36)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +26 pts
    1-1
    3:07
  2. FLA
    J. Hawryluk(4)
    V. Trocheck (16), E. Dadonov (25)
    deflectedxG 0.07win prob +26 pts
    1-2
    3:50
  3. FLA
    A. Barkov(23)
    J. Huberdeau (41), F. Vatrano (13)
    tip-inxG 0.05win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    5:42
  4. FLA
    J. Huberdeau(15)
    A. Barkov (37)
    backhandxG 0.06win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    16:45
  5. BUF
    V. Sobotka(4)
    Z. Girgensons (10), J. Larsson (5)
    wristxG 0.10
    2-4
    19:52

Penalties

BUF 8 PIM·FLA 8 PIM

1st

  • 5:52BUFVladimir Sobotka · Hookingdrawn by Jayce Hawryluk2 min
  • 13:22BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Slashingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 16:38FLAVincent Trocheck · Slashingdrawn by Casey Mittelstadt2 min

2nd

  • 4:35FLAFrank Vatrano · Holdingdrawn by Rasmus Ristolainen2 min
  • 6:57BUFRasmus Dahlin · Trippingdrawn by Evgenii Dadonov2 min

3rd

  • 7:11FLAJoshua Brown · Illegal check to headdrawn by Jake McCabe2 min
  • 10:24BUFJack Eichel · Cross checkingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 12:38FLAKeith Yandle · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalBUF goalFinal: FLA 100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Huberdeau, 3rd 3:07 — FLA 26% → 52%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.18F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.17A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.16J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.16F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.15J. Hawryluk · On goal · xG 0.12J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.12A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.10M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.09V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.09D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.09J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.08J. Hawryluk · Goal · xG 0.07H. Borgstrom · On goal · xG 0.07D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.06J. Huberdeau · Goal · xG 0.06F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.06A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.06M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.05I. McCoshen · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.05J. Hawryluk · On goal · xG 0.04V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.04D. Brassard · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.04I. McCoshen · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.03V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.03E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · On goal · xG 0.03J. Huberdeau · On goal · xG 0.03F. Vatrano · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sheahan · Missed · xG 0.02K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.02R. Sheahan · On goal · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.01M. Matheson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Malgin · On goal · xG 0.01V. Trocheck · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.01J. Brown · On goal · xG 0.01H. Borgstrom · On goal · xG 0.01K. Yandle · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 2.7 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsFLA
2.52 G
All situations
4 G2.7
1.31 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
1.11 G
Power play
0 G0.7
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF46%54%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.48 – 2.68

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsFLA
34
Shots on goal
41
45%
Faceoffs
55%
1/4
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
41
Hits
30
16
Blocked shots
15
19
Giveaways
26
12
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4Z. BogosianD000000.00120—22:14
26R. DahlinD000-230.09412—21:48
55R. RistolainenD000-220.03602—21:15
9J. EichelC101-340.692126320:29
19J. McCabeD000-130.15550—19:44
53J. SkinnerL011-320.15100—17:46
82N. BeaulieuD000000.02010—17:18
23S. ReinhartC011-120.07220016:48
71E. RodriguesC000030.121004416:25
37C. MittelstadtC000-130.420002015:54
29J. PominvilleR000-310.0110010015:04
22J. LarssonL011+100.007003814:54
24L. PilutD000-100.00010—14:54
28Z. GirgensonsC011+100.00320014:31
17V. SobotkaC101+110.212026313:06
72T. ThompsonC000030.25300011:19
43C. ShearyL000-150.11110—10:45
49C. SmithL000020.20200—07:51
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35L. Ullmark(L)41374.9022.72-1.2859:55

Season series

FLA leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).