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Flames at Lightning
NHL

Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Calgary Flames
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸6
FinalTV ESPN+, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Calgary Flames 6-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 10:10 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 72% to 87%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 2.6 to 1.7; shots on goal were CGY 22, TBL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 67% of the time. David Rittich stopped 21 of 27 (.778), 3.4 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 3 A), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 2 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CGYCGY161719322
TBLTBL31121115627

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(33)PPG
    J. Miller (23), N. Kucherov (61)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    0-1
    11:54
  2. TBL
    C. Paquette(9)
    D. Martel (2), R. Callahan (9)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    16:06
  3. TBL
    N. Kucherov(25)
    A. Stralman (13), B. Point (38)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    17:19
  4. CGY
    M. Giordano(12)PPG
    E. Lindholm (38), J. Gaudreau (47)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +10 pts
    1-3
    18:06

2nd period

  1. CGY
    S. Monahan(28)
    E. Lindholm (39)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 pts
    2-3
    9:13
  2. TBL
    A. Cirelli(11)
    N. Kucherov (62), Y. Gourde (19)
    backhandxG 0.08win prob +15 pts
    2-4
    10:10
  3. TBL
    Y. Gourde(15)
    B. Coburn (11), S. Stamkos (36)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +7 pts
    2-5
    16:11

3rd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(30)PPG
    N. Kucherov (63), B. Point (39)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +1 pts
    2-6
    5:01
  2. CGY
    S. Monahan(29)PPG
    E. Lindholm (40), J. Gaudreau (48)
    wristxG 0.13
    3-6
    14:11

Penalties

CGY 8 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 10:34CGYOliver Kylington · Holdingdrawn by Ryan Callahan2 min
  • 17:26TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 17:45TBLAlex Killorn · Hookingdrawn by Elias Lindholm2 min

2nd

  • 18:47TBLAnton Stralman · Trippingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

3rd

  • 3:02CGYGarnet Hathaway · Trippingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 7:57CGYAndrew Mangiapane · High stickingdrawn by Dan Girardi2 min
  • 9:47CGYMichael Frolik · High stickingdrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 12:54TBLRyan McDonagh · Hookingdrawn by Sam Bennett2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCGY goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 2nd 10:10 — TBL 72% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.14A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · Goal · xG 0.14S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.14A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.13A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.11Y. Gourde · Missed · xG 0.11J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.11A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.10T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.10S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.09C. Paquette · Goal · xG 0.09J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.09T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.08J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.08J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.08R. Callahan · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.08V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07J. Miller · On goal · xG 0.07B. Point · On goal · xG 0.06J. Miller · Missed · xG 0.06A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.05A. Erne · Missed · xG 0.05S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.04A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.04B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.03D. Girardi · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.02Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.01Y. Gourde · Goal · xG 0.01B. Coburn · On goal · xG 0.01
TBL6 G · 2.6 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CGYvsTBL
1.73 G
All situations
6 G2.6
1.11 G
Even strength
4 G2.1
0.42 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 74 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CGY33%67%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 2.54

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CGYvsTBL
22
Shots on goal
27
47%
Faceoffs
53%
2/4
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
8
17
Hits
20
14
Blocked shots
16
13
Giveaways
9
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Calgary Flames skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
5M. GiordanoD101-210.09130—23:35
24T. HamonicD000-110.03050—21:29
7T. BrodieD000-220.05020—20:13
55N. HanifinD000-120.05210—19:41
19M. TkachukL000-200.00100—18:31
28E. LindholmC033020.280004617:13
23S. MonahanC202-120.252004217:00
4R. AnderssonD000040.12000—16:37
13J. GaudreauL022-100.00400—16:32
18J. NealL000020.1420010015:49
10D. RyanC000020.040005014:38
77M. JankowskiL000010.140004214:31
58O. KylingtonD000000.00122—14:25
11M. BacklundC000-200.000005014:09
93S. BennettC000-110.1600010013:57
67M. FrolikR000-210.02002—13:51
21G. HathawayR000000.07402—10:39
88A. MangiapaneL000010.22012—09:51
Calgary Flames goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33D. Rittich(L)27216.7782.58-3.4260:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).