Ducks at Red Wings 1-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Anaheim Ducks

Detroit Red Wings

▸3

FinalTV FS-D, PRIME·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Anaheim Ducks 3-1. The Ducks scored first; the Red Wings answered. The Ducks led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Gustav Nyquist's goal at 15:44 of the third period, which took the Red Wings' chances from 52% to 90%. Expected goals were close — ANA 1.9, DET 2.0; shots on goal were ANA 24, DET 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. John Gibson stopped 22 of 25 (.880), 1.0 goals below expected; Jimmy Howard stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Gustav Nyquist (1 G), 2. Jimmy Howard (23 saves, .958), 3. Anthony Mantha (1 G).

Three stars

★
G. Nyquist1 G
★★
J. Howard23 saves, .958
★★★
A. Mantha1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
ANA	09	17	08	124
DET	08	08	39	325

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

R. Rakell(7)PPG
N. Ritchie (13), R. Getzlaf (22)
wristxG 0.20win prob +17 pts
1-0
12:03

3rd period

A. Mantha(11)
A. Athanasiou (11), D. Larkin (27)
snapxG 0.11win prob +28 pts
1-1
5:25
G. Nyquist(11)
D. DeKeyser (7), T. Vanek (11)
slapxG 0.11win prob +39 pts
1-2
15:44
D. Helm(3)
D. DeKeyser (8)
snapxG 0.14win prob +7 pts
1-3
17:27

Penalties

0 PIM·

4 PIM

2nd

11:19Tyler Bertuzzi · Cross checkingdrawn by Jake Dotchin2 min

3rd

2:40Niklas Kronwall · Interferencedrawn by Devin Shore2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: DET

100%

Biggest swing: Gustav Nyquist, 3rd 15:44 — DET 52% → 90%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 1.9 xG · 32 att DET

3 G · 2.0 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

1.91 G
All situations: 3 G2.0; 1.30 G
Even strength: 3 G2.0; 0.61 G
Power play: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

48%52%

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.90 – 2.00

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

24
Shots on goal: 25; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 1/2
Power play: 0/0; 0
Penalty minutes: 4; 25
Hits: 9; 13
Blocked shots: 8; 12
Giveaways: 16; 5
Takeaways: 4

Box score

every player line

Anaheim Ducks skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	FO%	TOI
26B. MontourD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.10	1	2	—	26:14
47H. LindholmD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.05	0	1	—	24:58
15R. GetzlafC	0	1	1	-2	3	0.20	2	0	41	24:32
4C. FowlerD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	—	23:23
37N. RitchieL	0	1	1	-1	2	0.14	3	1	—	23:14
42J. MansonD	0	0	0	-1	1	0.15	1	0	—	22:01
67R. RakellR	1	0	1	-2	3	0.46	1	0	—	21:31
14A. HenriqueC	0	0	0	0	2	0.14	0	1	57	19:18
29D. ShoreC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	4	0	33	18:48
25O. KaseR	0	0	0	0	6	0.39	0	1	—	17:23
24C. RowneyC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.04	5	1	18	13:58
23B. GibbonsC	0	0	0	-1	1	0.03	1	1	0	13:18
11D. SprongR	0	0	0	0	1	0.16	0	1	—	13:00
21J. DotchinD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	—	11:11
32J. LarssonD	0	0	0	-2	1	0.06	1	2	—	10:43
64K. SherwoodL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	0	—	09:17
17R. KeslerC	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0	1	40	05:06
33J. SilfverbergR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	1	0	—	03:44

Anaheim Ducks goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
36J. Gibson(L)	25	22	3	.880	2.01	-0.99	58:21

Season series

Tied 1-1

Oct 82@3SOFinal
Jan 151@3this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Anaheim Ducks at Detroit Red Wings

2nd period

3rd period

2nd

3rd

Box score