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Hurricanes at Lightning
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
1
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸3
FinalTV FS-SE, SUN·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Carolina Hurricanes 3-1. The Hurricanes scored first; the Lightning answered. The Hurricanes led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 16:45 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 60% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.0 to 2.2; shots on goal were CAR 27, TBL 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Petr Mrazek stopped 27 of 29 (.931); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 26 of 27 (.963), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G, 1 A), 2. Andrei Vasilevskiy (26 saves, .963), 3. Petr Mrazek (27 saves, .931).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Vasilevskiy26 saves, .963
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    P. Mrazek27 saves, .931

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR0121807127
TBLTBL03012315330

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Williams(11)
    D. Hamilton (10), T. van Riemsdyk (6)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +17 pts
    1-0
    4:34

3rd period

  1. TBL
    O. Palat(5)PPG
    S. Stamkos (25), B. Point (32)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +26 pts
    1-1
    11:56
  2. TBL
    B. Point(27)PPG
    N. Kucherov (51), V. Hedman (22)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +31 pts
    1-2
    16:45
  3. TBL
    B. Point(28)EN
    S. Stamkos (26), A. Killorn (13)
    wristxG 0.80win prob +5 pts
    1-3
    19:34

Penalties

CAR 12 PIM·TBL 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:03CARTeuvo Teravainen · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 13:06TBLYanni Gourde · Interferencedrawn by Greg McKegg2 min
  • 17:29CARDougie Hamilton · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 17:42TBLVictor Hedman · Hookingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

2nd

  • 6:12CARWarren Foegele · High stickingdrawn by Yanni Gourde2 min
  • 8:59CARAndrei Svechnikov · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 9:11TBLSteven Stamkos · Interferencedrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min
  • 17:47TBLAdam Erne · Hookingdrawn by Brock McGinn2 min

3rd

  • 11:15CARAndrei Svechnikov · Hookingdrawn by Erik Cernak2 min
  • 16:05CARGreg McKegg · Slashingdrawn by Alex Killorn2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalCAR goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 3rd 16:45 — TBL 60% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Point · Goal · xG 0.80N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.17T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.14M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.13B. Point · Goal · xG 0.12N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.12S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.10O. Palat · Goal · xG 0.09A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.09A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.08B. Point · On goal · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.06T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.05O. Palat · On goal · xG 0.05C. Paquette · On goal · xG 0.05A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.05A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.05B. Coburn · Missed · xG 0.05A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.04Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.04A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.04A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02A. Stralman · On goal · xG 0.01D. Girardi · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.00A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.00D. Martel · Missed · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 3.0 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsTBL
2.21 G
All situations
2 G3.0
1.91 G
Even strength
0 G1.7
0.20 G
Power play
2 G0.5
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR49%51%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.17 – 2.20

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsTBL
27
Shots on goal
30
42%
Faceoffs
58%
0/4
Power play
2/6
12
Penalty minutes
8
24
Hits
29
12
Blocked shots
13
5
Giveaways
4
8
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
74J. SlavinD000-110.05110—22:24
20S. AhoC000-120.440103821:46
22B. PesceD000000.00110—20:25
27J. FaulkD000020.08130—20:16
86T. TeravainenC000-120.19002019:40
19D. HamiltonD011020.09112—19:23
44C. de HaanD000020.07210—19:23
57T. van RiemsdykD011+110.02110—16:17
14J. WilliamsR101030.30010—16:06
37A. SvechnikovR000000.00304—14:54
79M. FerlandL000030.23500—14:32
23B. McGinnL000030.0310010013:52
71L. WallmarkC000010.121105013:22
42G. McKeggC000+110.070124412:25
13W. FoegeleL000010.02302—12:08
49V. RaskC000010.200003812:05
48J. MartinookL000020.29000—11:56
8S. MaenalanenR000000.00400—10:39
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34P. Mrazek(L)29272.9312.20+0.2059:06

Season series

TBL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).