Senators at Ducks 2-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Ottawa Senators

▸2

Anaheim Ducks

Final/OTTV PRIME, TSN5·Honda Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Anaheim Ducks 2-1 in overtime, Colin White scoring at 1:34. The Ducks scored first; the Senators answered. The Ducks led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Colin White's goal at 1:34 of overtime, which took the Senators' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — OTT 2.6, ANA 2.8; shots on goal were OTT 30, ANA 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Ducks win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Anders Nilsson stopped 32 of 33 (.970), 1.8 goals saved above expected; John Gibson stopped 28 of 30 (.933), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Colin White (1 G), 2. John Gibson (28 saves, .933), 3. Jakob Silfverberg (1 G).

Three stars

★
C. White1 G
★★
J. Gibson28 saves, .933
★★★
J. Silfverberg1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
OTT	07	011	110	12	230
ANA	15	018	010	00	133

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Silfverberg(11)
B. Montour (16), A. Cogliano (7)
slapxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
0-1
8:52

3rd period

B. Ryan(8)
D. DeMelo (9), C. Tierney (23)
tip-inxG 0.09win prob +30 pts
1-1
9:23

Overtime

C. White(11)
M. Stone (28)
tip-inxG 0.14win prob +51 pts
2-1
1:34

Penalties

6 PIM·

0 PIM

1st

13:48Brady Tkachuk · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Kase2 min

2nd

2:51Dylan DeMelo · Holdingdrawn by Rickard Rakell2 min
9:16Dylan DeMelo · Interferencedrawn by Kiefer Sherwood2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: ANA

Biggest swing: Colin White, OT 1:34 — OTT 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 2.8 xG · 54 att

←

attacks

attacks →

2 G · 2.6 xG · 48 att ANA

1 G · 2.8 xG · 54 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.62 G
All situations: 1 G2.8; 2.32 G
Even strength: 1 G2.2; 0.00 G
Power play: 0 G0.7; 0.40 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

47%53%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 2.81

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

30
Shots on goal: 33; 55%
Faceoffs: 45%; 0/0
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 0; 25
Hits: 24; 18
Blocked shots: 9; 17
Giveaways: 14; 8
Takeaways: 13

Box score

every player line

Ottawa Senators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
5C. CeciD	0	0	0	0	5	0.20	0	3	0	—	25:31
61M. StoneR	0	1	1	0	1	0.10	0	1	0	100	21:31
58M. LajoieD	0	0	0	0	2	0.18	0	2	0	—	20:14
2D. DeMeloD	0	1	1	+1	1	0.02	2	2	4	—	19:40
74M. BorowieckiD	0	0	0	0	1	0.18	10	1	0	—	19:30
67B. HarpurD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	—	19:07
44J. PageauC	0	0	0	0	4	0.14	1	0	0	78	17:58
83C. JarosD	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	1	2	0	—	17:49
36C. WhiteC	1	0	1	0	1	0.22	0	0	0	47	17:25
15Z. SmithC	0	0	0	0	3	0.47	1	0	0	22	17:24
71C. TierneyC	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	0	0	0	43	17:00
18R. DzingelC	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	4	2	0	0	16:27
7B. TkachukL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	3	1	2	100	14:12
9B. RyanR	1	0	1	+1	2	0.32	0	0	0	—	14:06
56M. PaajarviL	0	0	0	+1	4	0.37	1	2	0	—	13:20
89M. BoedkerL	0	0	0	0	1	0.07	0	0	0	—	13:05
13N. PaulL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	100	07:38
38R. BalcersL	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	06:45

Ottawa Senators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31A. Nilsson(W)	33	32	1	.970	2.81	+1.81	61:34

Season series

OTT leads 2-0

Jan 92@1OTthis game
Feb 70@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Ottawa Senators at Anaheim Ducks

1st period

3rd period

Overtime

1st

2nd

Box score