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Devils at Sabres
NHL

New Jersey Devils at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
New Jersey Devils
1
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
FinalTV MSG-B, MSG·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the New Jersey Devils 5-1. The Devils scored first; the Sabres answered. The Sabres led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was C.J. Smith's goal at 4:14 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 53% to 70%. Expected goals were close — NJD 2.0, BUF 2.2; shots on goal were NJD 21, BUF 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Keith Kinkaid stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.8 goals below expected; Carter Hutton stopped 20 of 21 (.952), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. C.J. Smith (1 G), 2. Lawrence Pilut (1 G), 3. Tage Thompson (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    C. Smith1 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    L. Pilut1 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NJDNJD150907121
BUFBUF01151507533

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. NJD
    B. Coleman(13)
    M. Wood (9), T. Zajac (14)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    1:28

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(29)
    T. Thompson (4)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +16 pts
    1-1
    1:39
  2. BUF
    C. Smith(1)
    J. Larsson (3), K. Okposo (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    4:14
  3. BUF
    C. Mittelstadt(6)
    Z. Bogosian (7), R. Dahlin (17)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    10:42
  4. BUF
    J. McCabe(3)SHG
    E. Rodrigues (10), V. Sobotka (4)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +10 pts
    1-4
    16:00
  5. BUF
    L. Pilut(1)
    C. Sheary (9), R. Ristolainen (22)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +3 pts
    1-5
    17:45

Penalties

NJD 14 PIM·BUF 20 PIM

1st

  • 2:50BUFRasmus Dahlin · High stickingdrawn by Nico Hischier2 min

2nd

  • 14:29BUFJeff Skinner · Slashingdrawn by Brett Seney2 min

3rd

  • 3:36BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Hookingdrawn by Travis Zajac2 min
  • 13:05BUFEvan Rodrigues · Roughingdrawn by Stefan Noesen2 min
  • 13:05NJDStefan Noesen · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 13:05NJDStefan Noesen · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 17:34BUFLawrence Pilut · Misconductdrawn by Miles Wood10 min
  • 17:34NJDMiles Wood · Misconductdrawn by Lawrence Pilut10 min
  • 18:35BUFRasmus Ristolainen · Holdingdrawn by Brian Boyle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNJD goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: C.J. Smith, 2nd 4:14 — BUF 53% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.14J. McCabe · Goal · xG 0.14E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.13K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.12C. Sheary · On goal · xG 0.12J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.11T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11C. Mittelstadt · Goal · xG 0.10J. Larsson · On goal · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Goal · xG 0.06M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Goal · xG 0.04Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.03L. Pilut · Goal · xG 0.03M. Scandella · Missed · xG 0.03K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Bogosian · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Larsson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02C. Sheary · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.01V. Sobotka · On goal · xG 0.01L. Pilut · On goal · xG 0.01M. Scandella · On goal · xG 0.01R. Ristolainen · On goal · xG 0.01C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.00Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF5 G · 2.2 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NJDvsBUF
2.01 G
All situations
5 G2.2
1.51 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NJD47%53%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.99 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NJDvsBUF
21
Shots on goal
33
46%
Faceoffs
54%
0/4
Power play
0/1
14
Penalty minutes
20
11
Hits
13
19
Blocked shots
11
3
Giveaways
6
1
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
New Jersey Devils skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28D. SeversonD000-140.25100—21:00
19T. ZajacC011-100.000005220:51
45S. VatanenD000000.06020—20:32
6A. GreeneD000-200.00120—20:07
8W. ButcherD000-120.06020—19:26
21K. PalmieriC000-320.16010018:13
44M. WoodL011000.110110—17:33
13N. HischierC000-230.330003617:28
12B. LovejoyD000-100.00120—17:20
16S. SantiniD000-200.07000—17:10
20B. ColemanL101020.102305017:02
37P. ZachaC000-110.121104316:11
11B. BoyleC000-120.140106314:59
63J. BrattL000-210.13010—14:59
56B. PietilaL000-110.21310—12:47
23S. NoesenR000010.04224—11:03
18D. StaffordR000-120.210005010:49
43B. SeneyL000-100.000004310:39
New Jersey Devils goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1K. Kinkaid(L)33285.8482.20-2.8059:51

Season series

NJD leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).