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Wild at Senators
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸4
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV FS-N, FS-WI·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Senators scored first; the Wild answered. The Wild led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jared Spurgeon's goal at 16:31 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 47% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were MIN 26, OTT 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected; Anders Nilsson stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jared Spurgeon (2 G), 2. Zach Parise (1 G, 2 A), 3. Matt Duchene (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon2 G
  2. ★★
    MIN
    Z. Parise1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN0831315426
OTTOTT1151418327

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    M. Duchene(17)
    Z. Smith (9)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +15 pts
    0-1
    19:06

2nd period

  1. MIN
    J. Spurgeon(6)
    L. Kunin (3), Z. Parise (18)
    backhandxG 0.16win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    0:41
  2. OTT
    R. Dzingel(16)
    B. Ryan (17), D. DeMelo (7)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +18 pts
    1-2
    8:08
  3. MIN
    J. Greenway(7)
    M. Granlund (27), E. Staal (13)
    tip-inxG 0.29win prob +20 pts
    2-2
    14:10
  4. MIN
    J. Spurgeon(7)
    C. Coyle (14), Z. Parise (19)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +22 pts
    3-2
    16:31

3rd period

  1. MIN
    Z. Parise(19)
    L. Kunin (4), C. Coyle (15)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +16 pts
    4-2
    6:07
  2. OTT
    M. Stone(20)
    C. Ceci (6), C. Wolanin (1)
    deflectedxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    4-3
    10:10

Penalties

MIN 4 PIM·OTT 6 PIM

1st

  • 16:57OTTMatt Duchene · Hookingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min

2nd

  • 1:31OTTMaxime Lajoie · Trippingdrawn by Jason Zucker2 min
  • 3:47MINserved by J. Greenway · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 5:45OTTBobby Ryan · Holding the stickdrawn by Ryan Suter2 min

3rd

  • 19:33MINMikko Koivu · Trippingdrawn by Mark Stone2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalMIN goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Jared Spurgeon, 2nd 16:31 — MIN 47% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Dzingel · Goal · xG 0.19M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.15M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.14C. White · On goal · xG 0.14R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13M. Stone · Goal · xG 0.10M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.10C. White · Missed · xG 0.08R. Balcers · Missed · xG 0.08C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.07C. White · Missed · xG 0.07R. Balcers · Missed · xG 0.07C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.06R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.05R. Dzingel · Missed · xG 0.04M. Paajarvi · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Smith · On goal · xG 0.03C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.03M. Lajoie · Missed · xG 0.03M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.03M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.02R. Dzingel · On goal · xG 0.02C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.02B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02B. Harpur · Missed · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.02C. White · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · Missed · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.00M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsOTT
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.1
2.04 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN58%42%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.06

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsOTT
26
Shots on goal
27
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
24
Hits
26
18
Blocked shots
16
7
Giveaways
15
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20R. SuterD000+310.13110—27:29
46J. SpurgeonD202+130.21230—24:36
25J. BrodinD000-110.02110—22:39
29G. PaterynD000-110.02120—22:04
3C. CoyleC022+210.012106219:44
16J. ZuckerL000060.30220—18:27
9M. KoivuC000-120.321022518:09
64M. GranlundC011000.00010017:51
12E. StaalC011020.071206317:32
11Z. PariseL123+310.26200—17:20
22N. NiederreiterR000-110.15100—16:28
18J. GreenwayL101-130.61210—15:44
19L. KuninC022+310.1500010015:03
21E. FehrC000-110.250208610:09
17M. FolignoL000-110.01200—09:26
6R. MurphyD000+100.00010—08:25
36N. SeelerD000010.01210—08:17
15M. HendricksC000-100.004005708:11
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)27243.8892.07-0.9359:59

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).