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Tampa Bay Lightning at Los Angeles Kings

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Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Los Angeles Kings 6-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 6:28 of the first period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.2 to 2.1; shots on goal were TBL 33, LAK 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 82% of the time. Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 28 of 30 (.933); Jonathan Quick stopped 27 of 33 (.818), 1.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 3 A), 2. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 2 A), 3. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL31621116633
LAKLAK0717116230

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    wristxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    6:28
  2. TBL
    B. Point(24)PPG
    wristxG 0.29win prob +11 pts
    2-0
    7:53
  3. TBL
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.34win prob +11 pts
    3-0
    14:05

2nd period

  1. TBL
    slapxG 0.01win prob +6 pts
    4-0
    0:25
  2. LAK
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.16win prob +5 pts
    4-1
    7:55
  3. TBL
    S. Stamkos(23)PPG
    slapxG 0.08win prob +3 pts
    5-1
    17:05

3rd period

  1. TBL
    wristxG 0.15
    6-1
    10:04
  2. LAK
    A. Kopitar (18), D. Brown (12)
    slapxG 0.07
    6-2
    17:36

Penalties

TBL 14 PIM·LAK 12 PIM

1st

  • 2:55TBLCedric Paquette · Roughingdrawn by Dion Phaneuf2 min
  • 2:55LAKDion Phaneuf · Roughingdrawn by Cedric Paquette2 min
  • 5:20LAKBrendan Leipsic · High sticking double minordrawn by Braydon Coburn4 min
  • 6:11LAKDustin Brown · Hookingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min

2nd

  • 2:22TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Matt Luff2 min
  • 15:27LAKAnze Kopitar · High stickingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 18:28TBLAnthony Cirelli · Roughingdrawn by Nate Thompson2 min
  • 18:28LAKNate Thompson · Roughingdrawn by Anthony Cirelli2 min
  • 18:28TBLserved by M. Joseph · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 7:29TBLRyan McDonagh · Holdingdrawn by Anze Kopitar2 min
  • 12:50TBLMikhail Sergachev · Interferencedrawn by Dustin Brown2 min
  • 16:57TBLOndrej Palat · Hookingdrawn by Ilya Kovalchuk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
LAK goalTBL goalFinal: LAK 0%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 1st 6:28 — TBL 52% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.27T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.17A. Wagner · Goal · xG 0.16A. Kopitar · On goal · xG 0.15B. Leipsic · Missed · xG 0.12I. Kovalchuk · On goal · xG 0.10N. Scherbak · On goal · xG 0.09J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.08D. Doughty · Goal · xG 0.07D. Brown · On goal · xG 0.07J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.06B. Leipsic · On goal · xG 0.06T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.06I. Kovalchuk · On goal · xG 0.05T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.05A. Kempe · Missed · xG 0.05J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.04D. Doughty · Missed · xG 0.04D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.04A. Iafallo · On goal · xG 0.03J. Muzzin · On goal · xG 0.03D. Doughty · On goal · xG 0.03A. Kopitar · Missed · xG 0.03T. Toffoli · Missed · xG 0.02O. Fantenberg · Missed · xG 0.02D. Forbort · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.02J. Muzzin · Missed · xG 0.02A. Wagner · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01D. Doughty · Missed · xG 0.01D. Forbort · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01M. Luff · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.01O. Fantenberg · On goal · xG 0.01D. Phaneuf · On goal · xG 0.01D. Doughty · On goal · xG 0.01A. Kempe · On goal · xG 0.01T. Toffoli · On goal · xG 0.00B. Leipsic · On goal · xG 0.00
LAK2 G · 2.1 xG · 42 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsLAK
4.26 G
All situations
2 G2.1
2.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.2
1.53 G
Power play
1 G0.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 93 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL82%18%LAK

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.17 – 2.02

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsLAK
33
Shots on goal
30
45%
Faceoffs
55%
3/4
Power play
1/5
14
Penalty minutes
12
16
Hits
23
14
Blocked shots
8
7
Giveaways
15
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD011+110.18030—21:49
6A. StralmanD000+120.13020—20:03
86N. KucherovR134+130.29000—19:00
21B. PointC112+130.481005018:59
98M. SergachevD000+120.15104—18:51
27R. McDonaghD101010.04102—18:49
91S. StamkosC123060.820103617:47
81E. CernakD000000.01300—17:46
71A. CirelliC000010.310226016:50
55B. CoburnD000+110.01000—16:43
9T. JohnsonC011+120.680002514:48
17A. KillornL000000.00200—14:29
37Y. GourdeC000020.16010014:19
18O. PalatL000010.19012—13:20
13C. PaquetteC000010.104124611:58
73A. ErneL000+130.16400—11:52
24R. CallahanR112+120.37010—11:25
7M. JosephR101+120.16020—10:33
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
88A. Vasilevskiy(W)30282.9332.07+0.0760:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).