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Wild at Maple Leafs
NHL

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Minnesota Wild
▸4
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
FinalTV FS-N, FS-WI·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3. The Wild came back from two goals down. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Zach Parise's goal at 4:21 of the third period, which took the Wild's chances from 48% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.5 to 2.3; shots on goal were MIN 34, TOR 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 80% of the time. Devan Dubnyk stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 1.5 goals saved above expected; Michael Hutchinson stopped 30 of 34 (.882), 1.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jared Spurgeon (1 G, 2 A), 2. Mitch Marner (2 G), 3. Devan Dubnyk (38 saves, .927).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MIN
    J. Spurgeon1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TOR
    M. Marner2 G
  3. ★★★
    MIN
    D. Dubnyk38 saves, .927

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MINMIN11921114434
TORTOR210112019341

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(14)
    C. Brown (11), J. Tavares (19)
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:07
  2. TOR
    M. Marner(15)
    J. Tavares (20), R. Hainsey (10)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 pts
    0-2
    5:38
  3. MIN
    C. Coyle(7)
    L. Kunin (2), J. Spurgeon (16)
    backhandxG 0.23win prob +14 pts
    1-2
    9:10

2nd period

  1. MIN
    M. Koivu(6)
    J. Spurgeon (17), Z. Parise (17)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    5:09
  2. TOR
    W. Nylander(1)
    A. Matthews (17), T. Dermott (9)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    2-3
    8:16
  3. MIN
    J. Spurgeon(5)
    J. Greenway (6), N. Niederreiter (13)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    3-3
    9:36

3rd period

  1. MIN
    Z. Parise(18)
    C. Coyle (13)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +27 pts
    4-3
    4:21

Penalties

MIN 10 PIM·TOR 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:31TORPar Lindholm · Slashingdrawn by Eric Fehr2 min
  • 19:40TORJohn Tavares · Slashingdrawn by Marcus Foligno2 min
  • 19:40MINMarcus Foligno · Roughingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

2nd

  • 2:47MINEric Staal · Hookingdrawn by William Nylander2 min
  • 16:42MINMikael Granlund · Hookingdrawn by John Tavares2 min

3rd

  • 7:54MINserved by J. Greenway · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:09MINJonas Brodin · Trippingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalMIN goalFinal: TOR 0%

Biggest swing: Zach Parise, 3rd 4:21 — MIN 48% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.35N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.21P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.19A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.18A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.16J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.15M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.15W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.14A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.11M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.10M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.10A. Johnsson · On goal · xG 0.10A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.09C. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.08A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.08M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.08P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.07T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.07N. Kadri · Missed · xG 0.07M. Marner · Goal · xG 0.07P. Marleau · On goal · xG 0.06P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kadri · On goal · xG 0.06W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.06T. Moore · On goal · xG 0.05P. Marleau · Missed · xG 0.05T. Moore · Missed · xG 0.05M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.05P. Lindholm · Missed · xG 0.04M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.04C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.03A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.03T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.02N. Zaitsev · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.02M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.02A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.02J. Gardiner · On goal · xG 0.01T. Dermott · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. Gardiner · Missed · xG 0.01T. Dermott · On goal · xG 0.01P. Lindholm · On goal · xG 0.01N. Zaitsev · On goal · xG 0.01C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 4.5 xG · 62 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MINvsTOR
2.34 G
All situations
3 G4.5
1.84 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.30 G
Power play
0 G1.8
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 102 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MIN20%80%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.27 – 4.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MINvsTOR
34
Shots on goal
41
38%
Faceoffs
62%
0/1
Power play
0/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
17
18
Blocked shots
13
7
Giveaways
16
6
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Minnesota Wild skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
20R. SuterD000+110.02020—27:16
46J. SpurgeonD123+110.07050—25:57
29G. PaterynD000040.08110—21:49
25J. BrodinD000+130.12322—21:42
9M. KoivuC101+220.120204119:23
11Z. PariseL112+250.27010—17:19
3C. CoyleC112+120.240104316:54
12E. StaalC000-120.151023714:58
64M. GranlundC000-250.47002014:47
19L. KuninC011+120.1621010014:23
16J. ZuckerL000-220.17000—14:03
22N. NiederreiterR011+110.08200—13:45
21E. FehrC000010.200003113:16
18J. GreenwayL011+110.110105013:13
17M. FolignoL000000.00302—11:22
6R. MurphyD000010.01110—10:48
36N. SeelerD000-100.00210—10:38
23J. BrownR000010.01100—08:27
Minnesota Wild goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40D. Dubnyk(W)41383.9274.46+1.4660:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).