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Stars at Senators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
1
Ottawa Senators
▸4
FinalTV FS-SW, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Stars scored first; the Senators answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brady Tkachuk's goal at 1:27 of the third period, which took the Senators' chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals were close — DAL 2.1, OTT 2.4; shots on goal were DAL 38, OTT 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 60% of the time. Ben Bishop stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.4 goals below expected; Craig Anderson stopped 37 of 38 (.974), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Craig Anderson (37 saves, .974), 2. Brady Tkachuk (1 G), 3. Matt Duchene (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    C. Anderson37 saves, .974
  2. ★★
    OTT
    B. Tkachuk1 G
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Duchene2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL11409015138
OTTOTT091738424

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    J. Klingberg(4)PPG
    J. Spezza (4), A. Radulov (6)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +11 pts
    1-0
    16:53

2nd period

  1. OTT
    M. Lajoie(4)
    M. Duchene (5), B. Ryan (2)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +23 pts
    1-1
    19:40

3rd period

  1. OTT
    B. Tkachuk(3)
    D. DeMelo (4), C. Tierney (6)
    deflectedxG 0.18win prob +24 pts
    1-2
    1:27
  2. OTT
    M. Boedker(1)
    M. Duchene (6)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +13 pts
    1-3
    10:12
  3. OTT
    Z. Smith(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.43win prob +1 pts
    1-4
    18:23

Penalties

DAL 4 PIM·OTT 8 PIM

1st

  • 4:29OTTMark Borowiecki · Trippingdrawn by Tyler Seguin2 min
  • 12:49DALAlexander Radulov · Cross checkingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 16:13OTTMaxime Lajoie · Trippingdrawn by Mattias Janmark2 min

2nd

  • 11:05DALMiro Heiskanen · Interferencedrawn by Mikkel Boedker2 min
  • 15:52OTTChris Tierney · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Pitlick2 min

3rd

  • 6:27OTTZack Smith · Trippingdrawn by Blake Comeau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalDAL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Brady Tkachuk, 3rd 1:27 — OTT 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Smith · Goal · xG 0.43B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.34B. Tkachuk · Goal · xG 0.18B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.16M. Stone · On goal · xG 0.15C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.13M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.11M. Lajoie · Goal · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.07M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.06M. Lajoie · Missed · xG 0.06T. Chabot · On goal · xG 0.05B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.05C. Wideman · Missed · xG 0.05B. Ryan · On goal · xG 0.03M. Borowiecki · On goal · xG 0.03M. Boedker · Goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03M. Stone · Missed · xG 0.03M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.02T. Chabot · Missed · xG 0.02D. DeMelo · Missed · xG 0.02M. Boedker · Missed · xG 0.02C. White · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01C. Jaros · On goal · xG 0.01M. Borowiecki · Missed · xG 0.01D. DeMelo · On goal · xG 0.01C. Tierney · On goal · xG 0.01M. Lajoie · On goal · xG 0.01M. Boedker · On goal · xG 0.01
OTT4 G · 2.4 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsOTT
2.11 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.20 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL60%40%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.12 – 1.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsOTT
38
Shots on goal
24
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/4
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
25
12
Blocked shots
15
7
Giveaways
15
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. KlingbergD101-130.32010—27:54
91T. SeguinC000-180.261004025:57
23E. LindellD000020.04210—24:38
14J. BennL000-120.102205723:35
47A. RadulovR011-350.13222—23:04
4M. HeiskanenD000-130.33102—19:11
5C. CarrickD000-120.10010—18:16
13M. JanmarkC000-100.000005017:49
12R. FaksaC000-100.041203116:35
18T. PitlickC000010.08210015:01
90J. SpezzaC011-220.150007114:53
15B. ComeauL000-120.1220010013:45
33M. MethotD000-200.16300—11:53
17D. ShoreC000-100.05000011:38
6J. HonkaD000-220.03010—11:23
43V. NichushkinR000-120.11000—10:40
25B. RitchieR000-130.11200—07:24
16J. DickinsonC000-110.011105006:56
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30B. Bishop(L)23203.8701.62-1.3855:28

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).